Some bookmakers (like Marathonbet) offer 3-Way Totals. Unlike standard Asian totals (Over 2.5), these markets include a third option: “Exactly 3 Goals” (or 2, or 4).
The odds on the “Exactly” outcome are often very high, attracting gamblers. This calculator helps you determine if those odds reflect the true probability or if they are a “sucker bet.”
Analyzing the “Exactly” Bet
This market splits the probability distribution into three slices. To find value, we use the Poisson Distribution.
- Input Expectancy: Enter the expected goals for Home and Away (e.g., 1.5 and 1.5 = 3.0 Total Exp).
- Target: Select “Exactly 3”.
- Result: The tool calculates the probability that the sum of goals will be exactly 3.
Strategic Insight
If the Total Expectancy is 3.0, the probability of “Exactly 3” is usually at its peak (around 22-24%).
If the bookmaker offers odds of 4.00 (25%) on “Exactly 3” when the true probability is 22%, it is a bad bet. However, if the game is expected to be tighter (Total Exp 2.2), the value might shift to “Exactly 2”.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is 3-Way Total better than Over/Under 2.5?
It is higher risk. Over 2.5 covers 3, 4, 5+ goals. “Exactly 3” covers only 3 goals. You should only play the 3-Way market if the odds on the specific outcome offer significantly better value than the broader 2-Way market.