Finding a surebet (arbitrage opportunity) is exciting, but there is a hidden trap that catches many beginners: Exchange Commission.
If you find an arbitrage opportunity between a standard Bookmaker (0% fee) and a Betting Exchange (2% to 5% fee), you cannot use a standard calculator. If you do, you will miscalculate your stakes, and the commission will eat your entire profit margin. Our Arbitrage Calculator with Commission uses “Effective Odds” logic. It automatically deducts the fee from the exchange’s side before calculating the optimal stake distribution, ensuring you lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome.
Exchange Arbitrage Calc
With CommissionCommission is deducted from Net Winnings only (Exchange Standard).
How to Use the Calculator
This tool is designed for “Arbers” who mix and match bookmakers with exchanges. Here is how to ensure your math is perfect:
- Select Mode (2-Way or 3-Way):
- Use 2-Way for Tennis, Basketball, or Over/Under markets.
- Use 3-Way for Football (Soccer) 1X2 markets.
- Enter Total Investment: The total amount of money you are willing to risk across all bookmakers for this trade.
- Input Odds and Commission:
- Odds: Enter the decimal odds for each outcome.
- Comm (%): If one leg is on a Bookmaker (e.g., Bet365), leave this at 0. If the other leg is on an Exchange (e.g., Betfair), enter the commission rate (e.g., 5).
- Execute the Trade: The calculator will show you exactly how much to bet on each leg to achieve the “Guaranteed Profit” shown at the bottom.
Real-World Examples: The “Exchange Trap”
Why is a specialized commission calculator necessary? Let’s look at the math.
Example 1: The “Fake” Arb (Loss caused by Fee)
You find a Tennis match with the following odds:
- Player A (Bookie): 2.05
- Player B (Exchange): 2.05
On a standard calculator, this looks like a 2.44% profit arb. You bet $500 on each side ($1,000 total).
The Reality: If Player B wins, the Exchange takes a 5% commission on your $500 profit ($25 fee). You win $475 net, but you lost $500 at the bookie. You actually lost $25 on what you thought was a surebet.
Example 2: The Correct Calculation
Using this calculator for the same scenario ($1,000 Total Stake, 5% Comm on Player B):
- The calculator converts the Exchange odds of 2.05 into Effective Odds of 1.9975.
- It recognizes there is No Arb (Negative ROI).
- It saves you from making a losing trade.
Example 3: A Profitable Exchange Arb
- Outcome 1 (Bookie): 2.10 (0% Comm)
- Outcome 2 (Exchange): 2.05 (2% Comm)
- The Result: The calculator identifies a Net ROI of +1.85%. It tells you to bet slightly more on the Exchange side to cover the commission cost, ensuring equal profit whichever player wins.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does commission apply to the stake or the winnings?
On almost all major betting exchanges (Betfair, Matchbook, Smarkets), commission is charged only on Net Winnings. If you lose the bet, you pay no commission. This calculator follows that standard logic.
What are “Effective Odds”?
Effective Odds are the “Real” odds you are getting after the fee is paid. For example, if you bet at 2.00 with a 5% commission, your Effective Odds are actually 1.95. This calculator performs this conversion automatically in the background.
Can I use this for Back/Lay arbitrage?
Yes. Back/Lay arbitrage is simply betting on an outcome at a bookmaker (Back) and betting against it on an exchange (Lay). Since Lay odds are effectively just the opposing side of a 2-way market, you can enter the Back odds in “Outcome 1” and the Lay odds (converted to back odds) in “Outcome 2” to calculate the spread.