You expect goals in a match. You see two options: Over 2.5 @ 1.70 or Asian Over 3.0 @ 2.10.
- Over 2.5: Wins on 3 goals. Lower odds.
- Over 3.0: Pushes (Refunds) on 3 goals. Wins on 4+. Higher odds.
Which is the mathematically superior bet? This calculator analyzes the “Value of the Push” to tell you which line maximizes your profit.
The “Push” Value Explained
The key to this decision is the probability of Exactly 3 Goals.
If the match lands on exactly 3 goals:
- Over 2.5 Bettor: Wins full profit.
- Over 3.0 Bettor: Gets money back ($0 profit).
The calculator checks if the extra odds offered on the 3.0 line are high enough to compensate for losing the profit on the “Exactly 3” outcome. Often, in high-scoring leagues, taking the lower line (2.5) is actually safer and more profitable.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What about Over 2.75?
Over 2.75 is a split bet (half on 2.5, half on 3.0). If the calculator shows that Over 2.5 is +EV and Over 3.0 is -EV, then Over 2.75 will be somewhere in the middle. Usually, it is better to pick the single best line rather than splitting.