Multi-Table Tournaments (MTTs) are the most volatile form of poker. It is mathematically possible—and quite common—for a winning player with a 20% ROI to go on a downswing that lasts for hundreds, or even thousands, of tournaments.
This “Variance” is the silent killer of poker careers. Players often mistake bad luck for bad play, or conversely, a lucky streak for skill. Our MTT Variance Calculator visualizes the mathematical reality of your grind. By simulating thousands of tournament runs based on your ROI and Field Size, it shows you the Confidence Intervals of your bankroll, helping you stay mentally tough during the inevitable downswings.
MTT Variance Calculator
ROI SimulatorHow to Use the Calculator
This tool replaces complex spreadsheets with a visual simulation. Here is how to configure it for your specific game:
- Enter Number of Tournaments: Input your sample size.
- Tip: In MTTs, the “Long Run” is massive. A sample of 100 games is noise. Try simulating 500 to 1,000 games to see realistic swings.
- Input Your Estimated ROI (%): Be honest. While elite pros achieve 30%+, a solid winning regular usually sits between 10% and 20%.
- Set Average Buy-in (ABI): If you play a mix of $11 and $33 tournaments, your ABI is roughly $22.
- Select Field Size (Standard Deviation): This is the most critical factor.
- Small (45-100 Players): Low variance. You cash often. (SD ~45-60 BI).
- Large (1,000+ Players): High variance. You lose often, but play for huge top prizes. (SD ~100-120 BI).
- Huge (Sunday Million): Extreme variance. It is a lottery with a skill edge. (SD ~150+ BI).
- Analyze the Graph:
- The Dotted Line is your Expected Profit (EV).
- The Shaded Area is the 95% Confidence Interval. Your actual bankroll will likely fluctuate within this cone.
Real-World Examples: The “Grinder” vs. The “Lottery”
Two players can have the same ROI but live completely different lives depending on the tournaments they choose.
Example 1: The 180-Man SNG Grinder
You play 1,000 tournaments with 180 players and a 15% ROI.
- The Simulation: The graph is relatively smooth. You will have downswings of 30-50 Buy-ins, but you are unlikely to end the sample in the red.
- Bankroll Needed: Roughly 100 Buy-ins is usually safe.
Example 2: The “Sunday Million” Hunter
You play 1,000 tournaments with 5,000+ players (Huge Field) and the same 15% ROI.
- The Simulation: The graph looks terrifying. You have a high probability (over 30%) of losing money over 1,000 games, despite being a winning player.
- The Upside: The top of the confidence interval shows massive profit (binking a 1st place).
- Bankroll Needed: You might need 300 to 500 Buy-ins to withstand the variance without going bust.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a “Standard Deviation” in MTTs?
Standard Deviation (SD) measures the “swinginess” of a game. In MTTs, SD is determined by the payout structure and field size. A 9-man Sit & Go has a low SD (~1.6 Buy-ins) because you cash often. A massive MTT has a high SD (>100 Buy-ins) because you lose your buy-in most of the time, relying on rare, huge scores to make up for it.
Why does the calculator show a loss if I have a positive ROI?
This is the nature of probability. A positive ROI represents your average return over infinite games. Over a short sample (like 1,000 games), variance can easily overpower your skill edge. This is why strict bankroll management is mandatory for MTT players.
What is a safe bankroll for MTTs?
The calculator provides a “99% Safe” recommendation. For small fields (under 200 players), 100 Average Buy-ins (ABI) is standard. For large fields (over 1,000 players), professional players often keep 300 to 500 ABI to ensure they never go broke during a bad year.