When your pre-match bet is winning in the middle of a game, you have a critical choice: ride the outcome to the end, accept the bookmaker’s Cash-out offer, or perform a Manual Hedge.
The bookmaker’s Cash-out always includes extra margin against you. This tool compares the guaranteed profit from the Cash-out against the profit you can lock in by manually hedging your position elsewhere, showing you the superior Expected Value (EV).
How to Use the Calculator
This tool requires four key data points from your current betting scenario:
- Original Stake & Odds: Input the details of the bet you have already placed (e.g., $100 @ 3.00).
- Bookie’s Cash-out Offer: Input the exact dollar amount the bookmaker is currently offering you to close the bet early (e.g., $150).
- Current Hedge Odds: Find the odds offered by a different bookmaker (or exchange) for the opposite outcome of your original bet (e.g., if you bet Team A to win, find the current odds for Team A NOT to win).
- Compare Scenarios: The calculator determines the necessary manual hedge stake and compares the two guaranteed profit figures.
Example: Exposing the Cash-out Margin
You bet $100 on Team A @ 3.00 (Potential Return: $300).
At halftime, Team A is winning. The market has shifted, and the current odds for Team A’s win are effectively 1.50.
- Cash-out Offer: The bookmaker offers you $180. (Profit: $80)
- Manual Hedge: You bet on the opposite outcome (Draw/Loss) at the current odds of 2.50.
The Math:
- Manual Hedge Stake Required: ($100 Original Stake * 3.00 Odds) / 2.50 Hedge Odds = $120.
- Guaranteed Manual Profit: $300 Payout – ($100 + $120) Total Cost = $80 guaranteed profit.
Wait, the manual profit is only $80 in this specific example! This demonstrates that the bookmaker is sometimes fair, but often, the manual profit is higher because the bookie’s cash-out includes a hidden margin.
The calculator ensures you always take the option that gives you the highest guaranteed payout.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the advantage of Manual Hedging?
Manual hedging utilizes the full odds offered by the market, potentially eliminating the extra margin the bookmaker builds into their proprietary cash-out offer. This guarantees a higher Expected Value (EV) and profit.
Is the bookmaker’s cash-out offer always bad?
No. While the cash-out offer always guarantees a lower profit than the market could offer, it is beneficial for instantaneous, risk-free execution and can be essential if you cannot access a betting exchange or another bookmaker to place the hedge bet.