Betting on a team to keep a Clean Sheet (concede 0 goals) is a popular defensive wager. But how do you price it?
This calculator uses the Poisson formula for P(0) (Probability of zero events) based on the opponent’s attacking strength to give you the exact percentage chance of a shutout.
How to Estimate Clean Sheets
You need to estimate the Opponent’s Expected Goals.
- If Man City plays a bottom-tier team at home, the opponent might have an xG of only 0.5.
Result: ~60% chance of a Clean Sheet.
- If Man City plays Arsenal, the opponent xG might be 1.2.
Result: ~30% chance of a Clean Sheet.
Clean Sheet vs. “Win to Nil”
This market is safer than “Win to Nil” because you win even if the match ends 0-0. If you think a favorite will struggle to score but defend well, the Clean Sheet market is the smarter play.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a good price for a Clean Sheet?
For a strong favorite at home, odds of 1.80 to 2.20 are standard. If you can find odds of 2.50+ on a top defense like Atletico Madrid or Juventus against a weak attack, that is often significant value.