The Closing Line Value (CLV) is the most important indicator of a bettor’s skill. It measures whether the odds you took were better than the odds offered by the market right before the game started.
If you consistently beat the closing line (Positive CLV), you have an edge. This calculator verifies your CLV on a single-bet basis.
How to Use the CLV Evaluator
To calculate CLV, you need to track your odds compared to the final market odds.
- Odds When You Placed Bet: Enter the Decimal odds you originally secured when you placed the wager (e.g., 2.10).
- Odds at Start of Game (Closing Line): Enter the Decimal odds offered by the bookmaker on the same outcome exactly when the game started (e.g., 1.95).
- Analyze the Result:
- Positive CLV: You gained value. The market agreed with you and lowered the odds (or probability increased). This is the mark of a profitable bettor.
- Negative CLV: The market moved against you. Your odds were worse than the closing line.
Example: Beating the Line
Imagine a scenario where news breaks out about a key player’s injury just before kick-off, causing the market to shift.
- Your Odds (Placed Early): 2.05
- Closing Line Odds: 1.95
The calculator shows a Positive CLV of approximately 5.1%. This means you gained 5.1% of potential value simply by placing your bet early. Whether the bet wins or loses, a positive CLV confirms your decision was mathematically sound.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is CLV the most important metric?
While a lucky streak can temporarily lead to high ROI, a consistently positive CLV proves that your betting model or research is structurally sound and predictive. If you beat the closing line, you are essentially beating the collective wisdom of the market.
Does CLV guarantee I will win the bet?
No. Any single bet is subject to variance (luck). CLV is only a measure of decision quality. A bet with +5% CLV might still lose, but if you repeat the process hundreds of times, positive CLV will lead to long-term profit.