Contents show
Betting on Corners and Cards (Bookings) is becoming increasingly popular because bookmakers often pay less attention to these “small markets” compared to the main scoreline.
This calculator uses a modified Poisson distribution model to estimate the probability of Over/Under outcomes based on the historical averages of both teams.
Stats Estimator (Corners/Cards)
How to Use the Estimator
You can find the required data on free stats sites like WhoScored, SofaScore, or FBref.
- Avg Team A: Enter the average corners/cards EARNED by the home team per match.
- Avg Team B: Enter the average corners/cards EARNED by the away team.
- Betting Line: Enter the line the bookmaker is offering (e.g., Over 9.5 Corners).
- Result: The tool calculates the percentage chance of going Over or Under that line.
Example: Finding Value in Corners
- Team A Avg: 6.5 Corners.
- Team B Avg: 5.0 Corners.
- Expected Total: 11.5.
- Bookie Line: Over 10.5 @ 1.85.
The calculator might show that “Over 10.5” has a 60% probability (Fair Odds 1.66). Since the bookie offers 1.85, this is a strong value bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does game state affect corners?
Yes. This calculator uses pre-match averages. In-play, if a favorite is losing, they tend to earn significantly more corners as they attack. If they are winning, corner counts often drop.