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Betting on Corners and Cards (Bookings) is becoming increasingly popular because bookmakers often pay less attention to these “small markets” compared to the main scoreline.
This calculator uses a modified Poisson distribution model to estimate the probability of Over/Under outcomes based on the historical averages of both teams.
Stats Est
How to Use the Estimator
You can find the required data on free stats sites like WhoScored, SofaScore, or FBref.
- Avg Team A: Enter the average corners/cards EARNED by the home team per match.
- Avg Team B: Enter the average corners/cards EARNED by the away team.
- Betting Line: Enter the line the bookmaker is offering (e.g., Over 9.5 Corners).
- Result: The tool calculates the percentage chance of going Over or Under that line.
Example: Finding Value in Corners
- Team A Avg: 6.5 Corners.
- Team B Avg: 5.0 Corners.
- Expected Total: 11.5.
- Bookie Line: Over 10.5 @ 1.85.
The calculator might show that “Over 10.5” has a 60% probability (Fair Odds 1.66). Since the bookie offers 1.85, this is a strong value bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does game state affect corners?
Yes. This calculator uses pre-match averages. In-play, if a favorite is losing, they tend to earn significantly more corners as they attack. If they are winning, corner counts often drop.