Betting on a single Correct Score is hard. That is why “Score Groups” (e.g., “Home Win by 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1”) are popular.
However, bookmakers often add a huge margin to these pre-packaged groups. This calculator allows you to select any combination of scores to calculate the True Probability and Fair Odds of the group.
How to Use the Group Valuator
- Enter Expected Goals: Input the average goals for Home and Away.
- Select Scores: Check the boxes for the scores included in the group (e.g., 1-0, 2-0, 2-1).
- Compare: The tool sums up the Poisson probabilities for each selected score.
Example: The Bundle Trap
A bookie offers 3.50 on the group “1-0, 2-0, or 2-1”.
Our calculator shows the combined probability of these three scores is 32%.
- Fair Odds: 1 / 0.32 = 3.12.
- Bookie Offer: 3.50.
Verdict: Value! The bookie is paying more than the mathematical probability suggests. If the offer was 2.80, it would be a bad bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Should I Dutch these scores manually?
Often, yes. If the “Group Price” is poor, you can use our Correct Score Dutching Calculator to place separate bets on 1-0, 2-0, and 2-1. This frequently yields a higher effective return than the pre-packaged bundle.