You want to bet on a striker. The Anytime Goalscorer odds are safe but low (e.g., 1.80). The First Goalscorer odds are high (e.g., 4.50). Which one offers better mathematical value?
This tool converts Anytime odds into a “Fair” First Goalscorer price based on the team’s expected goal output. It helps you spot when the FGS price is inflated (good value) or suppressed (bad value).
The Multiplier Effect
The relationship between Anytime and First Scorer depends on how many goals the team is expected to score.
- Low Scoring Game (e.g., 1.0 Goals): If the team only scores 1 goal, the “Anytime” scorer IS the “First” scorer. The odds should be similar.
- High Scoring Game (e.g., 3.0 Goals): The team scores many times. A player has multiple chances to score “Anytime,” but only one chance to score “First.” The FGS odds should be much higher (4x or 5x the AGS odds).
Example Strategy
If Haaland is 1.50 to score Anytime, and Man City is expected to score 2.5 goals:
- Calculator Estimate: Fair FGS Odds ~4.50.
- Bookie Offer: 3.50.
- Verdict: The bookie is underpaying for the First Goal. Stick to the safer Anytime bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What about “Last Goalscorer”?
Mathematically, the odds for “First Goalscorer” and “Last Goalscorer” should be identical, as goal distribution is random regarding who scores. If you see a discrepancy (e.g., Last Scorer paying more), it is often an arbitrage opportunity.