One of the most lucrative promotions in sports betting is the “Risk-Free Bet” or “Money Back if…” offer. For example: “Place a $20 bet on Horse A, and if it loses, we will refund your stake as a Free Bet.”
Most beginners simply place the bet and hope for the refund. However, smart matched bettors use the Fixabet Strategy. By adjusting your Lay stake on the exchange to account for the potential refund, you can lock in a guaranteed result (or minimize your qualifying loss) before the event even starts. Our Fixabet Calculator handles the complex math of “Retention Rates” to ensure you never over-lay or under-lay these offers.
Fixabet Calculator
Risk-Free BetIf Bookie loses: -$20.00 + $16.00 (Bonus) + $14.92 (Exch) = -$3.78
How to Use the Calculator
This tool differs from a standard calculator because it accounts for the value of the potential refund. Here is your workflow:
- Enter Bet Details:
- Back Stake: The amount you are betting at the bookmaker (e.g., $50).
- Back Odds: The odds at the bookmaker.
- Lay Odds & Commission: The current price at your betting exchange (Betfair, Matchbook, etc.).
- Configure the Refund:
- Max Refund Amount: If the offer is “Money back up to $20,” enter 20. If your stake is lower than the cap, the calculator adjusts automatically.
- Refund Retention (%): This is crucial.
- Set to 100% if the refund is Cash.
- Set to 80% (default) if the refund is a Free Bet (SNR). A free bet is not worth face value because the stake isn’t returned, so we discount its value.
- Place the Lay Bet: The calculator gives you a specific “Lay Stake.” Place this amount on the exchange. You have now equalized your profit/loss across all outcomes.
Understanding “Retention” and “Equal Profit”
The magic of the Fixabet calculator is that it treats the potential refund as an asset. It calculates a Lay stake that is lower than a standard matched bet. Why?
Because if your Back bet loses, you aren’t truly “losing”—you are gaining a refund. The calculator reduces your liability on the exchange to reflect this safety net.
Example 1: The “Money Back as Cash” Offer
A bookmaker offers “Money Back as Cash if your team loses” (Risk-Free Bet) up to $50.
- Back: $50 on Team A at 2.00.
- Lay: Team A at 2.05 (Exchange).
- Retention: 100% (since it’s cash).
- Result: The calculator will tell you to Lay roughly $48.78.
- If Team A wins: You win at the bookie, lose a bit at the exchange. Profit: ~$1.20.
- If Team A loses: You get your $50 back from the bookie (Net $0), and you win the lay bet at the exchange. Profit: ~$1.20.
Example 2: The “Money Back as Free Bet” Offer
A bookmaker offers “Money Back as a Free Bet if your horse finishes 2nd.” You bet $20.
- Retention: Set to 80%. We estimate we can turn a $20 free bet into $16 cash later.
- The Math: The calculator treats the loss condition as a “$16 win” (the value of the free bet). It calculates a Lay stake that spreads this $16 value across all outcomes, ensuring you lose significantly less (or break even) compared to a normal bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “Retention” in the calculator?
Retention is the estimated cash value of the refund. If you get cash back, it’s 100%. If you get a Free Bet, it’s usually worth 75-80% of its face value because you have to bet it again to extract the cash (and the stake is not returned). We recommend leaving it at 80% for standard Free Bet offers.
Can I use this for “Money Back if 2nd or 3rd”?
Yes, but with caution. This calculator assumes the refund is guaranteed if the bet loses. In a “Money Back if 2nd” offer, if your horse finishes 4th, you lose the bet AND you don’t get a refund. For these offers, it is often safer to stick to the standard Qualifying Bet Calculator and simply treat the refund as a bonus if it happens.
Why is my Lay Stake lower than usual?
This is correct. Because you are getting a refund if you lose, you don’t need to “insure” the full amount on the exchange. By laying less, you reduce your liability, which increases your profit if the refund triggers.