In football betting, the odds you see on the screen are never the “real” odds. Bookmakers add a hidden fee—known as the margin, vig, or juice—to every market. This ensures that the sum of all probabilities exceeds 100%, guaranteeing the house a profit regardless of the match result.
To be a profitable bettor, you must look past the sticker price. Our 1X2 Probability Calculator uses the “Proportional Devigging” method to strip away this margin. It converts standard betting odds into True Probabilities (adding up to exactly 100%) and calculates the Fair Odds you should aim for.
1X2 Probability Calculator
| Outcome | Bookie Odds | True Prob % | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | |||
| Draw | |||
| Away Win |
How to Use the 1X2 Probability Calculator
This tool is essential for Value Betting. It tells you the actual percentage chance the market assigns to each outcome. Here is how to use it:
- Enter the Odds: Input the decimal odds for Home Win (1), Draw (X), and Away Win (2) from your sportsbook. You must enter all three to calculate the margin accurately.
- Click Calculate: The tool will instantly process the numbers.
- Analyze the Results:
- True Prob %: This is the realistic chance of the outcome happening, adjusted for the bookie’s fee.
- Fair Odds: This is the price the bet should be if the bookmaker took zero commission. If you can find odds higher than this number on another site, you have found Value.
- Margin: The total percentage of “juice” in the market. Lower is better for the bettor.
Tip: If you want to convert these probabilities into safer betting markets, check out our Draw No Bet Calculator or the Double Chance Calculator.
Real-World Examples: Finding the Truth
Why does “Devigging” (removing the vig) matter? Let’s look at a standard Premier League scenario.
Example 1: The “Fair” Match
You see the following odds for a match between Arsenal vs. Liverpool:
- Home (Arsenal): 2.50
- Draw: 3.40
- Away (Liverpool): 2.80
If you calculate the simple probability ($1 / Odds$), you get 40% + 29.4% + 35.7% = 105.1%. That extra 5.1% is the bookmaker’s profit.
Using our Calculator:
- True Probability (Arsenal): 38.0% (Real chance to win)
- Fair Odds: 2.63
Verdict: Since the bookie offers 2.50, but the fair price is 2.63, this is a negative value bet. You are getting paid less than the true risk implies.
Example 2: Spotting Value
Let’s say you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning based on your own analysis (xG data, form, injuries). You run the market odds through the calculator and see:
- Bookie Odds: 2.10
- Calculator “True Prob”: 46%
Wait! The market thinks they only have a 46% chance. You think they have 50%. This discrepancy is where profit is made. By comparing your projection against the True Probability, you can identify when the market is wrong.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does 1X2 mean in betting?
1X2 is the most common betting market in football (soccer). 1 stands for the Home Team winning, X stands for a Draw, and 2 stands for the Away Team winning. It covers the result at the end of Regular Time (90 minutes + injury time).
Why do the implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?
This is called the Overround. Bookmakers intentionally set odds lower than the true probability to create a mathematical edge. For example, in a coin toss (50/50), a bookie might offer odds of 1.90/1.90, which implies a 105% total probability. The extra 5% is their profit margin.
How do I use this to calculate Asian Handicaps?
The 1X2 market is different from handicaps because it includes the Draw option. To analyze handicap value, you should use our dedicated Asian Handicap Calculator or compare the two using the Asian Handicap vs 1X2 Value Tool.
What are “Fair Odds”?
Fair Odds (or “No Vig Odds”) are the theoretical odds of an event if the bookmaker took zero commission. If you place a bet at odds higher than the Fair Odds, you have a “Positive Expected Value” (+EV) bet.