The Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market is one of the most exciting ways to bet on football. It doesn’t matter who wins or loses; you simply need both the Home and Away teams to score at least one goal each.
However, betting on “Yes” just because two teams have good strikers is a losing strategy. To beat the bookmakers, you need to calculate the actual mathematical probability of a clean sheet being ruined. Our BTTS Calculator uses the Poisson Distribution model to analyze the offensive strength of both sides and generate the True Probability and Fair Odds for both “BTTS: Yes” and “BTTS: No”.
BTTS Calculator
Prediction ModelPredict if both teams will score based on their Average Goals or xG stats.
How to Use the BTTS Calculator
This predictive tool converts raw goal data into a clear “Yes/No” percentage. Here is how to use it to find value:
- Find the Stats: Locate the Expected Goals (xG) for the Home and Away teams.
- Pro Tip: If you don’t have access to xG data, you can use the “Average Goals Scored” per match from their last 5-10 games.
- Enter the Data: Input the Home xG (e.g., 1.65) and Away xG (e.g., 1.10) into the calculator fields.
- Analyze “Yes” vs. “No”:
- Yes %: The likelihood that both teams score.
- No %: The likelihood that at least one team fails to score (Clean Sheet).
- Compare Fair Odds: The calculator gives you the “Fair Price.” If the tool says the Fair Odds for “Yes” are 1.60, but your bookmaker is offering 1.75, you have found a Value Bet.
Related Tools: If you think both teams will score but want to bet on the total number of goals, check our Over/Under Goals Calculator. If you want to combine BTTS with the match winner, use the BTTS & Win Combo Calculator.
Real-World Examples: The Math Behind the Goal
Many bettors mistakenly think that if two teams average 1.5 goals per game, BTTS is guaranteed. The math shows otherwise.
Example 1: The Trap Game
Team A plays Team B. Both are decent attacking sides.
- Inputs: Home xG: 1.50 | Away xG: 1.20
- Calculator Result (BTTS Yes): 53.6% Probability (Fair Odds: 1.87).
Scenario: The bookie offers odds of 1.70 for “Yes.”
Verdict: Avoid. Even though they are scoring teams, the probability is barely a coin flip (53%). The bookie’s odds (1.70) are far below the fair price (1.87), meaning this is a negative value bet.
Example 2: The “No” Value
A strong defensive team plays a weak underdog.
- Inputs: Home xG: 2.10 | Away xG: 0.40
- Calculator Result (BTTS No): 67% Probability.
Verdict: The calculator sees a high chance that the underdog fails to score. If the bookie offers odds of 1.80 on “BTTS: No,” you have a massive edge, as the fair odds should be much lower.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does BTTS mean?
BTTS stands for Both Teams To Score.
BTTS Yes: You win if the score is 1-1, 2-1, 1-3, etc. (No clean sheets).
BTTS No: You win if at least one team scores zero goals (e.g., 1-0, 0-0, 0-3).
How is the probability calculated?
We use the Poisson Distribution formula. First, we calculate the probability of the Home Team failing to score (0 goals) and the Away Team failing to score. By inverting these numbers, we get the probability of them scoring. Since these are treated as independent events, we multiply them to get the “Yes” percentage.
Should I use Average Goals or xG?
xG (Expected Goals) is much more accurate because it measures the quality of chances created. Average Goals can be misleading if a team scored 5 lucky goals in one game but created nothing in the next three. However, Average Goals is a good starting point if xG data is unavailable.
Does this calculator predict the exact score?
No, it only calculates the probability of both teams scoring >0. If you want to predict the exact scoreline (e.g., 2-1), please use our Correct Score Calculator.