In sports betting, your results over 10 or 20 bets are mostly down to luck. However, there is one metric that separates professional “sharp” bettors from recreational “square” bettors: Closing Line Value (CLV).
CLV measures the price you took versus the final price the market settled on just before the match started (the Closing Line). If you consistently bet on odds higher than the closing line, you are mathematically guaranteed to be a long-term winner, regardless of the outcome of any single match. Our CLV Calculator allows you to track this value and calculate your theoretical ROI.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
Bet AnalyzerHow to Use the CLV Calculator
There are two ways to analyze your performance with this tool: Simple and True (No-Vig) modes.
Step 1: Choose Your Mode
- Simple CLV: Best for a quick check. It compares your odds directly to the closing odds.
- True CLV (No-Vig): This is the professional standard. It requires you to enter the closing odds for all outcomes (e.g., Home, Draw, Away) so the calculator can remove the bookmaker’s margin and find the “True” fair price.
Step 2: Input Your Data
- Odds Taken: The decimal odds at which you placed your bet.
- Closing Odds: The decimal odds at the moment the game started (kick-off).
- Calculate: The tool will output a percentage. A positive percentage (e.g., +5.00%) means you beat the market.
Related Tools: To find the best entry point before the line moves, use our Match Analysis Calculator. If you are tracking a live bet, see how the value shifts in real-time with our Live Betting Tools.
Why CLV is the Only Metric That Matters
Imagine you bet on a team at 2.10. By kick-off, the professional money has come in, and the price has dropped to 1.90. Even if that team loses the match, you have made a “good” bet. You bought an item for 1.90 that was actually worth more at the time of purchase.
Example 1: Positive CLV (The Sharp Bet)
- You Bet: $100 at 2.20 odds.
- Market Closes: 2.00 odds.
- Result: Your CLV is +10%. This means you are essentially “capturing” 10% more value than the average bettor. Over 1,000 bets, this 10% gap is the difference between a massive profit and going broke.
Example 2: Negative CLV (The Recreational Bet)
- You Bet: $100 at 1.80 odds (right before kick-off).
- Market Closes: 1.90 odds (the price drifted up).
- Result: Your CLV is -5.2%. You took a worse price than what was available at the start of the game. If your CLV is consistently negative, your strategy is likely losing money long-term, even if you are currently on a “lucky” winning streak.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a good CLV percentage?
In high-liquidity markets like the Premier League or NFL, a consistent CLV of 2% to 5% is considered elite. If you are beating the closing line by this much over hundreds of bets, you are statistically likely to be among the top 1% of bettors globally.
Why should I use “No-Vig” (True) CLV?
Bookmakers include a margin (the “vig”) in their odds. The closing line of 2.00 isn’t the “true” probability; the true probability is likely closer to 2.10 once the margin is removed. True CLV gives you a more honest look at whether you are beating the actual probability of the event occurring.
Does CLV work for prop bets?
Yes, but it is harder to track because prop lines (like player shots or tackles) move more erratically. However, the principle remains the same: if you bet Over 1.5 shots at 1.90 and it closes at 1.70, you have generated significant CLV.
Can I have a positive CLV and still lose money?
In the short term, yes. This is called “variance.” You can beat the line every time and still hit a losing streak. However, if your CLV is positive, your Expected Value (EV) is positive, and the math dictates that you will eventually profit if you keep betting.