Most bettors analyze a football match as a single 90-minute event. Professional bettors analyze it as two distinct 45-minute games. Statistically, football matches are not linear; due to tactical caution, fatigue, and “Fergie Time,” approximately 55% of goals are scored in the second half, while only 45% occur in the first.
Our Half-Time / Interval Calculator takes the Full Match Expected Goals (xG) and applies sophisticated time-decay models to split the data. This allows you to generate precise probabilities for niche markets like 1st Half Result, Over 0.5 First Half Goals, and the Highest Scoring Half.
Half-Time / Interval Calc
1st vs 2nd HalfPredict First Half Result, Half-Time Goals, and Second Half outcomes by splitting Full Match xG.
How to Use the Interval Calculator
This tool helps you find value in the specific time-period markets often overlooked by the public. Here is how to use it:
- Get the Full Match Data: Enter the Total Expected Goals (xG) for the Home and Away teams.
- Note: You can get this from the outputs of our 1X2 Probability Calculator or external stats sites.
- Analyze the Split: The calculator divides the game into two cards:
- 1st Half Card: Shows the probability of the Home/Away team winning the first 45 minutes, or a Goal being scored (Over 0.5).
- 2nd Half Card: Shows the probabilities for the second 45 minutes independently.
- Check the “Highest Scoring Half”: At the bottom, a bar chart visualizes whether the game is likely to be a slow burner (2nd Half > 1st Half) or an early blitz.
Related Tools: If you are looking for specific scorelines for the full match, use our Correct Score Calculator. If you want to bet on total goals for the whole game, check the Over/Under Calculator.
Real-World Examples: Winning by Splitting the Game
Bookmakers often price First Half markets simply by halving the full-time odds, but this is mathematically incorrect. Here is how to exploit that.
Example 1: The “Slow Starter” (Man City vs. Low Block)
You are betting on Man City vs. a defensive team. You expect City to win, but the full-time odds are terrible (1.15).
- Input: City xG: 2.50 | Opponent xG: 0.20.
- Calculator Result: You see a high probability for “Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half” (55%).
- Reasoning: The opponent will defend freshly in the first half (0-0 or 1-0), but tire in the second half (3-0 or 4-0).
- Strategy: Instead of betting City to win, you bet Highest Scoring Half: 2nd at odds of 2.00.
Example 2: The “Over 0.5 First Half” Accumulator
You want to build an accumulator based on early goals. You look at a match between two aggressive teams (e.g., Liverpool vs. Newcastle).
- Calculator Result: The “1st Half Over 0.5 Goals” probability is 78% (Fair Odds 1.28).
- Value Check: If the bookmaker is offering 1.40 because they underestimated the early tempo, you have found a solid leg for your acca.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the “Highest Scoring Half” market?
This is a 3-way market where you predict which half will contain more goals.
1st Half: More goals in the first 45 mins.
2nd Half: More goals in the second 45 mins (statistically the most common outcome).
Equal: Both halves have the exact same number of goals (e.g., 1-0 HT, 2-1 FT means 1 goal in each half).
Does “1st Half Result” include the final score?
No. The “1st Half Result” market is settled the moment the referee blows the whistle for half-time. Whatever happens in the second half is irrelevant. It is essentially a mini-match lasting 45 minutes.
Why are there usually more goals in the 2nd Half?
Data from the Premier League and Champions League consistently shows a ~45/55 split. This is due to defensive fatigue, tactical substitutions opening up the game, and chasing teams taking more risks in the final minutes (leading to late goals or counters).
Does injury time count?
Yes. Injury time (stoppage time) added to the end of the 1st Half counts for 1st Half bets. Injury time at the end of the match counts for 2nd Half bets. However, Extra Time (the 30 mins added in cup draws) does not count.