For football bettors chasing massive payouts from small stakes, few markets are as legendary as the Scorecast and Wincast. These “combination bets” require you to predict two specific events in a single match, offering high odds that often rival lottery tickets.
- Wincast: You predict the First Goalscorer and the Match Result (1X2).
- Scorecast: You predict the First Goalscorer and the Correct Final Score.
However, calculating the fair odds for these markets is tricky. You cannot simply multiply the odds of the two events because they are correlated. If a team’s star striker scores the first goal, the chances of that team winning increase drastically. Our calculator estimates the “Correlation Tax” to show you the Estimated Fair Price, helping you decide if the bookmaker’s offer is worth the risk.
Scorecast & Wincast
Wincast: Player scores 1st + Team Wins (1X2).
Scorecast: Player scores 1st + Correct Final Score.
How to Use the Calculator
This tool acts as a “sanity check” for your combination bets. Here is how to use it:
- Select Your Market: Choose between the Wincast tab (Scorer + Winner) or the Scorecast tab (Scorer + Exact Score).
- Find the Single Odds: Look up the individual odds for your selections on your betting site.
- For the player, find the “First Goalscorer” odds.
- For the result, find the standard “Match Winner” or “Correct Score” odds.
- Enter the Data: Input both odds into the calculator fields.
- Calculate: The tool will display:
- Mathematical Double: What the odds would be if the events were independent (the “wrong” math).
- Estimated Price: The realistic price after adjusting for correlation. Use this to compare against your bookmaker.
Related Tools: To analyze the probability of the final score itself, use our Correct Score Heatmap. If you want to check if the team is likely to win, use the 1X2 Probability Calculator.
Real-World Examples: The “Correlation Tax”
Why is this calculator necessary? Because bookmakers heavily reduce the odds when events are linked.
Example 1: The Wincast (Harry Kane & Bayern Munich)
You want to bet on Harry Kane to score first and Bayern Munich to win.
- Harry Kane (First Scorer): 3.50
- Bayern to Win: 1.50
- Simple Math (3.50 x 1.50): 5.25
If you placed this as a standard double, you’d expect odds of 5.25. However, since Kane scoring makes a Bayern win highly probable, the bookmaker reduces the payout. Our calculator might estimate the Fair Wincast Price at ~4.10. If the bookie offers 3.80, it’s a bad deal. If they offer 4.50, it’s great value.
Example 2: The Scorecast (Underdog Miracle)
You bet on a defender to score first and a 1-0 win.
- Defender Odds: 20.00
- Correct Score 1-0 Odds: 8.00
- Simple Math: 160.00
Here, the correlation is lower (a defender scoring doesn’t guarantee a specific scoreline as much as a striker scoring guarantees a win). The calculator might estimate the price at 120.00. This helps you avoid expecting the full 160.00 payout.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What happens if my player doesn’t play?
In most Scorecast and Wincast bets, if your selected player does not start the match (or comes on after the first goal is scored), the bet is usually voided and your stake is refunded. However, always check your specific bookmaker’s rules.
Can I use Anytime Goalscorer instead of First Goalscorer?
Yes, the math is similar, but the odds will be lower. Scorecast/Wincast traditionally refers to the First goalscorer, which carries higher risk and higher reward. If you want to combine Anytime Scorer with a result, you are essentially building a Bet Builder (Same Game Multi).
Why can’t I place these as a normal accumulator?
Most sportsbooks block you from adding related events (like Scorer and Match Winner) into a standard accumulator because of the correlation issue described above. They force you to use their specific “Wincast” markets or a Bet Builder tool where they can control the price reduction.
What if the first goal is an Own Goal?
Own goals usually do not count for First Goalscorer markets. If the first goal is an own goal, the bet usually carries over to the second goal. If the match ends 1-0 via an own goal, the Correct Score part might win, but the Scorer part is often settled as “No Goalscorer” (or void depending on the bookie).