Most bettors stick to the standard Match Winner markets, but the real value often hides in the “Specials”. Markets like Win to Nil and Win from Behind offer significantly higher odds, allowing you to boost your returns without needing a massive accumulator.
However, calculating the “Fair Odds” for these complex scenarios is difficult because the events are correlated (e.g., a team winning increases the chance of them keeping a clean sheet). Our Specials Calculator handles this complex math for you, helping you determine if the high price the bookie is offering is actually a good deal.
Specials Calculator
High OddsCalculate fair odds for "Home Win + Clean Sheet".
Victory for a team that was trailing during the match (Comeback).
Probability of a penalty kick being awarded (either team).
How to Use the Specials Calculator
This tool covers three distinct “High Odds” markets. Here is how to use each tab to find value:
1. Win to Nil (Defensive Dominance)
This market requires your team to win and keep a clean sheet (e.g., 1-0, 2-0, 3-0).
- Inputs: Enter the standard odds for the Home Win and the Clean Sheet (often listed as “Home Team to Concede: No”).
- The Math: The calculator applies a correlation factor. If a team wins, they are statistically more likely to have kept a clean sheet than in a random match.
- Use Case: Perfect for backing strong favorites (like Man City or Arsenal) against teams with weak attacks.
2. Win from Behind (The Comeback)
One of the most profitable markets in betting. Your team must concede the first goal but still win the match.
- Inputs: Enter the odds for the Win and Both Teams to Score (BTTS).
- The Math: Since a “Win from Behind” mathematically requires both teams to score, the calculator derives the probability from the intersection of these two markets, adjusted for the difficulty of a comeback.
3. Penalty in Match
Will the referee point to the spot?
- Inputs: Use the slider to set the expected Penalties per Match.
- Guidance: The average for major leagues (Premier League, La Liga) is around 0.28 – 0.35. However, if the referee is strict or the teams are aggressive, slide this higher to see the true odds.
Related Tools: To get the base odds for these calculations, check our 1X2 Probability Calculator. If you are analyzing a penalty scenario, cross-reference the referee’s strictness with our Cards & Referee Calculator.
Real-World Examples: finding the “Hidden Value”
Bookmakers often add a massive “vig” (margin) to specials because they know bettors can’t calculate the true odds. Here is how to beat them.
Example 1: The “Fortress” Bet (Win to Nil)
Liverpool plays a bottom-table team at Anfield. The odds for a Liverpool Win are terrible (1.20).
- Strategy: You check the “Win to Nil” market. The bookie offers 2.10.
- Calculation: You input the win odds (1.20) and clean sheet odds (1.80). The calculator suggests the fair price for Win to Nil is 1.95.
- Verdict: Since the bookie is offering 2.10 (higher than the fair price), this is a Value Bet. You get much better odds for a very likely scenario.
Example 2: The “Derby” Penalty
It’s the Milan Derby. The game is expected to be heated.
- Analysis: You check the referee stats and see he awards 0.45 penalties per game (very high).
- Calculation: You move the slider to 0.45. The calculator shows a 36% probability (Odds 2.75) of a penalty.
- Value: The bookmaker, using generic league stats, offers odds of 3.20. You take the bet immediately.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What happens to “Win to Nil” if the game ends 0-0?
The bet loses. Although the team kept a clean sheet (Nil), they did not Win. A “Win to Nil” bet requires both conditions to be true (e.g., 1-0, 2-0, 5-0).
Does “Win from Behind” count if they concede equalizing goals?
Yes, as long as they were losing at some point. For example, if your team goes 0-1 down, then makes it 1-1, then goes 1-2 down, and finally wins 3-2, the bet wins. The only requirement is that they trailed the opponent at some stage and won the match.
Do penalties in a shootout count for the “Penalty” market?
No. The “Penalty in Match” market only applies to penalties awarded during regular time (90 minutes + injury time). Penalties in a post-match shootout or Extra Time do not count unless explicitly stated by the bookmaker.
Why are the odds for these markets so high?
These are “compound” events. It is harder to do two things (Win AND keep a clean sheet) than to do just one. The difficulty multiplies, which increases the odds. However, because the events are correlated, the odds aren’t as high as a standard double bet, which is why a specialized calculator is needed.