Betting on Futures (Outrights)—such as “Who will win the Super Bowl?” or “Who will win the Masters?”—is widely considered the hardest market to beat. The bookmaker’s “Hold” (margin) is often 20% or higher, compared to just 4.5% on a standard NFL game.
To win at futures, you cannot simply guess winners; you must act like a fund manager. You need to identify Expected Value (EV) across multiple teams, allocate your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion, or execute Dutching Strategies to lock in a guaranteed profit. Our Futures Portfolio Calculator is the ultimate tool for managing multi-position wagers.
Futures Portfolio Manager
| # | Contender / Team | Odds (US) | True Win % | Implied % | Edge (EV) | Kelly Bet |
|---|
How to Use the Futures Portfolio Calculator
This tool has two distinct modes depending on your goal: Value Finding (EV) or Risk Management (Hedge).
1. Settings & Setup
- Bankroll: Enter your total available funds for this market.
- Kelly Multiplier: Select your risk tolerance. We recommend Quarter Kelly (0.25) for futures due to high variance and the fact that money is tied up for months.
- Mode: Toggle between “Value / EV” and “Hedge All”.
2. Mode A: Value / EV (finding profitable bets)
Use this mode at the start of the season to build a portfolio of profitable teams.
- Add Contenders: Click “+ Add Contender” for every team you are analyzing.
- Enter Odds: Input the current odds from the sportsbook (e.g., +500, +1200).
- Enter True Win %: Input your estimated probability of that team winning.
- Tip: If you think the Chiefs have a 20% chance to win, enter 20.
- Analyze: The tool calculates the Edge (EV) and recommends an optimal bet size based on the Kelly Criterion.
3. Mode B: Hedge All (Dutching)
Use this mode to “lock in” a profit by betting on multiple outcomes, or to hedge an existing position.
- Enter Target Profit (Payout): Enter the total amount you want to collect (Revenue).
- Enter Odds: Input the odds for all possible winners you want to cover.
- Result: The calculator tells you exactly how much to bet on each outcome to ensure you receive your Target Payout regardless of who wins.
Related Tools: To understand the “vig” the bookie is charging on the futures market, check the Margin Calculator. If you only need to hedge a single bet against one opponent (e.g., hedging a Super Bowl ticket before the game starts), the standard Hedge Calculator is faster.
Real-World Examples: Portfolio Management
Example 1: The “Kelly” Approach (Pre-Season)
You have a $1,000 bankroll for NFL Futures. You see the following odds:
- Chiefs (+500): Your model gives them a 20% chance. (EV: +20%). The calculator suggests a small value bet.
- Ravens (+1400): Your model gives them an 8% chance. (EV: +20%). The calculator suggests a bet.
- Jets (+1000): Your model gives them a 5% chance. (EV: -45%). The calculator advises $0 (Do Not Bet).
Example 2: The “Dutching” Approach (Guaranteed Win)
It is the Conference Championship round. There are only 4 teams left. You want to bet on all 4 teams in a way that guarantees you collect $1,000 regardless of who wins the Super Bowl.
- Input: Target Profit/Payout = $1,000.
- Odds: Team A (+150), Team B (+250), Team C (+400), Team D (+600).
- Result: The calculator breaks down the stake for each team. If the total cost of these bets is less than $1,000 (e.g., $850), you have created a “Risk-Free” arbitrage opportunity with a guaranteed net profit of $150.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “Market Overround”?
Displayed at the bottom of the calculator, this is the total sum of the implied probabilities minus 100%. In Futures markets, this is often 20-30%. A high overround makes it very difficult to find value. You should always shop for the sportsbook with the lowest overround (lowest hold) on futures.
Why does the calculator suggest betting $0 on some teams?
In “EV Mode,” if your estimated “True Win %” is lower than the Implied Probability of the odds, the bet has Negative Expected Value (-EV). A disciplined bettor never places a -EV wager, so the Kelly recommendation is $0.
Can I use this for Golf or NASCAR?
Yes. This tool is perfect for “Field” sports. You can add 5, 10, or 20 golfers to the list to manage your outright card for a major tournament.
What is the difference between Hedging and Dutching?
Hedging is usually done to protect an existing bet (e.g., betting against your original pick to lock in profit). Dutching is the act of betting on multiple outcomes simultaneously to cover a market. This calculator handles the math for both.