In football betting, the “Highest Scoring Half” market is often overlooked. Statistically, more goals are scored in the second half due to fatigue, tactical changes, and stoppage time drama.
This calculator uses a Poisson distribution model split by intensity (typically 45% 1st half / 55% 2nd half) to show you the true probability of each outcome.
The “Second Half” Rule
Historically, the 2nd Half is the highest scoring half in about 50-55% of matches. The 1st Half wins about 25-30% of the time, and the “Equal” outcome happens around 20% of the time.
Finding Value
If the bookmaker offers odds of 2.00 (Even Money) on the 2nd Half being the highest scoring, this is often a value bet, as the true probability is usually higher than 50%.
However, in games with a very low expected total (e.g., Under 2.0), the “Equal” outcome becomes a strong value play because 0-0 or 1-1 half scores are likely.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does this include stoppage time?
Yes. Goals scored in stoppage time (45+ or 90+) count towards the half they occurred in. Since 2nd half stoppage time is often longer, this further biases the result towards the 2nd Half.