Live betting (In-Play) allows skilled bettors to place hundreds of bets per week. While this volume helps realize an edge quickly, it also introduces massive Variance.
This Monte Carlo Simulator projects your bankroll fluctuations over a series of bets. It helps you answer the question: “Can my bankroll survive a bad run of variance, even if I am a winning player?”
How to Use the Simulator
This tool runs a simulation of your strategy to show the “Best Case,” “Worst Case,” and “Expected” scenarios.
- Bankroll: Your starting funds.
- Flat Stake: Your standard bet size.
- Avg Odds & Win Rate: Be honest with your stats. If you bet on tennis points at 1.90 odds, what is your real win rate? (e.g., 55%).
- Volume: How many bets do you place in a session/week? (e.g., 100).
Understanding Drawdown
The most important number this tool reveals is not the final profit, but the “Low Point” (Max Drawdown).
Example: You start with $500. The simulation shows you ended with $600 (Profit!), but at one point, your balance dropped to $150.
Lesson: If you had started with only $200, you would have gone bust before the winning streak occurred. This simulator teaches you to keep a sufficient buffer for the inevitable swings of live betting.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Monte Carlo simulation?
It is a mathematical technique that uses random sampling to generate a range of possible outcomes. Since live betting involves luck, a single calculation isn’t enough. Running a simulation shows you the range of “What Ifs”—from lucky streaks to disastrous bad runs.