Bookmakers often offer poor odds on popular strikers because they know fans will bet on them regardless of the price. To win in the Anytime Goalscorer market, you need to ignore the hype and look at the stats.
This calculator uses a player’s Expected Goals (xG) per 90 minutes to calculate the true mathematical probability of them scoring in a match. If the bookie’s odds are higher than the fair odds, you have found value.
How to Use xG for Betting
You can find xG data on sites like Understat, FBref, or SofaScore.
- xG per 90: Enter the player’s average expected goals. (e.g., Haaland might be 0.85, a defender might be 0.05).
- Minutes: Expected playing time. Be realistic—if a player often gets subbed off at 60 mins, enter 60.
- Bookie Odds: Enter the decimal price available.
- Result: The tool uses a Poisson distribution formula to find the chance of scoring ≥ 1 goal.
Example: Value vs. Trap
- Player A: xG 0.50. Bookie offers 2.00.Analysis: True Prob is ~39% (Fair Odds 2.54). BAD BET (-EV).
- Player B: xG 0.30. Bookie offers 4.50.Analysis: True Prob is ~26% (Fair Odds 3.86). GOOD BET (+EV).
Often, the best value is found in midfielders or defenders with high xG who are overlooked by the bookies.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does xG guarantee a goal?
No. xG measures the quality of chances a player usually gets. A player can have 1.0 xG and score 0 goals (bad finishing), or 0.1 xG and score 2 goals (luck). Over the long term, however, actual goals tend to converge with xG stats.