The Poisson Distribution is a widely used statistical model to predict the probability of independent, random events occurring in a fixed interval. In football (soccer), it is the industry standard for modeling the probability of exact scores.
By inputting the average expected goals (Lambda) for each team, this calculator provides the probabilities of specific match outcomes, allowing you to find value bets hidden in the totals and score markets.
How to Use the Poisson Calculator
Poisson prediction requires you to establish the average expected goals (Lambda) for each team in the specific match environment (home/away factor).
- Team A Average Goals (Lambda): Input the expected goal rate for the home team or first team (e.g., 1.45). This should be calculated from historical data.
- Team B Average Goals (Lambda): Input the expected goal rate for the away team or second team (e.g., 0.85).
- Analyze the Results: The tool generates a score probability table and calculates the likelihood of specific markets. Compare the resulting probability (e.g., 38% chance of Under 2.5) with the bookmaker’s implied odds.
Example: Predicting the Score
Imagine Team A is a strong favorite playing at home (Lambda = 1.8) and Team B is a mid-table away side (Lambda = 1.0).
- Probability of 0:0: The calculator will show this is very low (e.g., 4.5%).
- Probability of 2:1: This may be the most likely score (e.g., 15.0%).
- Totals/BTTS: The model combines the probabilities to show the chance of the game having Over 2.5 Goals (e.g., 68%) or Both Teams to Score (e.g., 55%).
If the bookmaker is offering odds equivalent to 75% for Over 2.5, but the Poisson model predicts 68%, you know that market is poor value.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What are the limitations of the Poisson model?
Poisson assumes that goals are independent, random events. It does not account for real-world factors like game state (a team changing tactics after scoring), player injuries during the match, or emotional factors (red cards). It provides a strong statistical base but not a perfect prediction.
How do I calculate the average goals (Lambda)?
Lambda is your expected goal rate. It is usually calculated by taking a team’s attacking strength, comparing it to the opponent’s defensive strength, and adjusting for the home/away factor, often using xG (Expected Goals) data for a more accurate rate.