Every bettor has a goal: “I want to turn $1,000 into $2,000.” But every bettor also faces a risk: “I will stop if I lose $500.” The burning question is: What are the odds of reaching the goal before hitting the stop-loss?
Simple EV calculations can’t answer this because they ignore variance. Our Profit Target Probability Calculator solves this complex problem using a Monte Carlo Simulation. By simulating your betting strategy thousands of times in seconds, it determines exactly how often you will cross the finish line versus how often you will bust, giving you a realistic picture of your risk.
Target Probability Calc
Profit vs Stop-LossHow to Use the Calculator
This tool bridges the gap between Expected Value (EV) and Risk Management. Here is how to configure your simulation:
- Define Your Boundaries:
- Target Profit ($): Your “Take Profit” point (e.g., +$500).
- Stop Loss ($): Your “Walk Away” point (e.g., -$500).
- Set Bet Parameters:
- Bet Size ($): Your flat stake per bet.
- Decimal Odds: The average odds you are betting at (e.g., 2.00).
- Input True Win Probability: This is the most critical step. Enter the actual percentage chance of winning.
- Note: If you bet at 2.00 odds but only win 50% of the time, you have no edge. If you win 52.5% of the time, you have a massive edge.
- Run Simulation: The calculator runs 25,000 virtual sessions. It reports the percentage of times you hit the target vs. the stop-loss.
Real-World Examples: The Power of an Edge
Why is “True Probability” so important? Let’s look at how a small edge dramatically changes your survival rate.
Example 1: The Coinflip (No Edge)
Scenario: You want to win $500 or lose $500. You bet $50 at odds of 2.00 with exactly 50% win probability.
- The Math: Since the distance to the win ($500) and the loss ($500) is equal, and you have no advantage, the probability is exactly 50% / 50%. It is a pure coin toss.
Example 2: The Advantage Player (+EV)
Scenario: Same goal (+/- $500), same odds (2.00). But, you are a sharp bettor with a 52.5% Win Probability.
- The Result: The calculator reveals that you will hit your profit target roughly 73% of the time, while hitting your stop-loss only 27% of the time.
- The Insight: A tiny 2.5% edge doesn’t just make you money; it drastically improves your reliability and reduces your risk of ruin.
Example 3: The “Longshot” Grinder
Scenario: You bet on underdogs (Odds 4.00) with a 26% win rate (slight edge).
- The Simulation: The calculator will show that while you have a mathematical edge, the Average Bets to Finish will be much higher due to variance. You need a larger bankroll (Stop Loss) to withstand the swings compared to betting on favorites.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How is this different from the Risk of Ruin Calculator?
Risk of Ruin calculates the chance of losing your entire bankroll over an infinite period. This calculator computes the probability of reaching a specific short-term goal versus hitting a specific stop-loss limit.
Why do I need to enter “True Win Probability”?
Bookmaker odds include a margin (vig). If you rely on implied odds, you are calculating a negative expectation scenario. To see if a strategy is viable, you must estimate your true win rate (e.g., from your handicapping model) to see how that edge plays out over time.
What is the “Average Bets to Finish”?
This metric tells you how long your betting session will likely last. A strategy with high variance (like betting on longshots) will typically have a longer duration before you either hit your target or your stop-loss, whereas betting on low odds results in faster sessions.