Horse racing promotions are the bread and butter of matched betting, particularly the famous “Money Back if 2nd or 3rd” offers found on ITV Racing days. The concept is attractive: you back a horse, and if it narrowly misses out on winning, the bookmaker refunds your stake (usually as a Free Bet).
However, these offers are not risk-free. To qualify, you must place a real money bet. If your horse wins or finishes 4th, you don’t get a refund. Our Racing Refund Calculator allows you to calculate the “Qualifying Loss” (the cost of playing) and compare it against the “Potential Profit” (the value of the refund), ensuring you only play when the math is in your favor.
Racing Refund Calc
| Horse Wins No refund triggered | -£0.58 |
| Refund Triggered Place 2nd/3rd etc. | +£7.42 |
| Horse Unplaced Lost standard match | -£0.58 |
How to Use the Calculator
The goal is to find a “Close Match”—a horse whose odds at the bookmaker are very close to the odds on the betting exchange. Here is how to configure the tool:
- Enter the Back Bet:
- Stake: The amount you are betting (e.g., £10). Note: Check the offer terms, as refunds are usually capped at £10 or £20.
- Back Odds: The decimal odds available at the bookmaker.
- Enter the Lay Bet:
- Lay Odds: The price to lay against the horse on the exchange (Betfair, Smarkets, etc.).
- Commission: Your exchange commission rate.
- Refund Settings:
- Max Refund: The maximum amount the bookie will return (e.g., £10).
- Retention (%): This is the cash value of the refund.
- If the refund is Cash, set to 100%.
- If the refund is a Free Bet, set to 80% (standard matched betting retention).
Real-World Examples: Risk vs. Reward
The secret to this strategy is keeping your Qualifying Loss (QL) low. A good rule of thumb is that your QL should be no more than 10% of the potential refund value.
Example 1: The Profitable Play
There is a “Money Back if 2nd” offer on the 13:50 at Ascot. You back Tiger Roll.
- Odds: Back at 6.0 / Lay at 6.2.
- Stake: £10.
- The Math: The calculator shows a Qualifying Loss of -£0.45.
- The Upside: If the horse finishes 2nd, you get a £10 Free Bet (worth ~£8 cash).
- Verdict: You are risking 45p to potentially make £8. This is Excellent Value (+EV).
Example 2: The “Gapping” Odds Trap
You find a favorite, but the market is volatile.
- Odds: Back at 3.0 / Lay at 4.0.
- The Math: The gap in odds creates a Qualifying Loss of nearly -£2.50.
- Verdict: Risking £2.50 to win an £8 bonus is Poor Value. Over the long run, you will lose money because the refund won’t trigger often enough to cover these expensive qualifying losses.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a “Qualifying Loss”?
In matched betting, you rarely find Back and Lay odds that are exactly the same. Usually, the Lay odds are slightly higher. The difference results in a small loss (e.g., £0.50) regardless of the race outcome. This is the “cost of doing business” to qualify for the potential refund.
Does this calculator work for “Extra Place” offers?
No. Extra Place offers require a different mathematical approach because you bet Each Way. For those offers, please use our dedicated Each Way Calculator. This tool is specifically for “Money Back” promotions on Win Single bets.
What does “80% Retention” mean?
A £10 Free Bet is not worth £10 cash, because the bookmaker does not return the stake when you use it. Matched bettors generally estimate that a Free Bet can be converted into 80% of its face value as cash (e.g., £8) using standard strategies.