You have a 5% ROI after 500 bets. Are you a winning player, or are you just running hot? In the short term, variance mimics skill. In the long term, math reveals the truth.
This Confidence Interval Calculator performs a statistical audit of your record. It calculates the “Cone of Uncertainty” (Standard Error) to show you the range where your true win rate likely lies.
How to Interpret the Data
The calculator uses the Standard Error (SE) formula to generate a 95% Confidence Interval.
Example: The “Lucky” Winner
- ROI: 10%
- Bets: 100
- Odds: 2.00
Result: The calculator might show a range of -8% to +28%.
Verdict: Since the range includes negative numbers, we cannot say with 95% confidence that you are a winning player. Your sample size is too small; the 10% ROI could easily be random noise.
Example: The “Proven” Winner
- ROI: 3%
- Bets: 5,000
- Odds: 2.00
Result: Range +1.5% to +4.5%.
Verdict: The bottom of the range is positive. We are statistically confident you are a profitable bettor.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is P-Value in betting?
The P-Value represents the probability that your results could have happened by pure chance (luck). A P-Value below 0.05 (5%) is the gold standard for proving you are a skilled bettor.