The actual League Table often lies. A team might be lucky to win 3 games in a row despite playing poorly. Smart bettors look at Expected Points (xPts) to judge true performance.
This calculator converts the probabilities of a match (derived from odds or xG models) into a projected point value (0 to 3). Over a season, this metric predicts final standings better than actual points.
How to Calculate xPts
In football (soccer), points are awarded as: Win (3), Draw (1), Loss (0).
The Formula: (Win% * 3) + (Draw% * 1) + (Loss% * 0)
Example: The “Unlucky” Draw
Team A dominates the match. Based on Expected Goals (xG), they had:
- 80% chance to Win.
- 15% chance to Draw.
- 5% chance to Lose.
The game ended 1-1.
Actual Points: 1.
Expected Points (xPts): (0.80 * 3) + (0.15 * 1) = 2.55.
The calculator shows that Team A “deserved” 2.55 points. If they keep playing like this, their results will improve. Betting on them in the next match might be good value because the public thinks they are struggling.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a good xPts per game?
> 2.30 xPts: Championship contenders (e.g., Man City).
~ 1.40 xPts: Mid-table stability.
< 1.00 xPts: Relegation zone.
How does this help with betting?
If a team has high Actual Points but low Expected Points, they are “overperforming” (lucky) and are a good candidate to Lay (bet against) or fade in future matches as their luck reverts to the mean.