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If a team is favored by -7.0 points, what should their Moneyline price be? -300? -350?
This Spread to Moneyline Converter uses historical scoring data (primarily NFL/NBA models) to estimate the implied win probability and fair Moneyline odds based on the point spread.
Spread to ML
Why Convert Spreads?
This tool helps you find Value by spotting discrepancies between the Spread and the Moneyline.
Example Strategy
The spread on the Chiefs is -3.0.
Our calculator estimates the Fair Moneyline for -3.0 is approximately -160 (1.62).
- Scenario A: Bookie offers Moneyline -140.
Verdict: Value Bet! The ML is cheaper than the spread suggests. - Scenario B: Bookie offers Moneyline -180.
Verdict: Bad Bet. You are paying too much “tax” to avoid the spread. Stick to the -3.0 spread bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is this conversion exact?
No, it is an approximation based on scoring distributions. Key numbers in the NFL (like 3 and 7) create non-linear jumps in probability. This tool provides a strong baseline estimate for finding value.