If a team is favored by -7.0 points, what should their Moneyline price be? -300? -350?
This Spread to Moneyline Converter uses historical scoring data (primarily NFL/NBA models) to estimate the implied win probability and fair Moneyline odds based on the point spread.
[gc_spread_to_ml]
Why Convert Spreads?
This tool helps you find Value by spotting discrepancies between the Spread and the Moneyline.
Example Strategy
The spread on the Chiefs is -3.0.
Our calculator estimates the Fair Moneyline for -3.0 is approximately -160 (1.62).
- Scenario A: Bookie offers Moneyline -140.
Verdict: Value Bet! The ML is cheaper than the spread suggests. - Scenario B: Bookie offers Moneyline -180.
Verdict: Bad Bet. You are paying too much “tax” to avoid the spread. Stick to the -3.0 spread bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is this conversion exact?
No, it is an approximation based on scoring distributions. Key numbers in the NFL (like 3 and 7) create non-linear jumps in probability. This tool provides a strong baseline estimate for finding value.