Betting on Shots on Target is one of the fastest-growing markets in football. Unlike goals, shots are less random and provide a more consistent data set for prediction.
This calculator combines a team’s attacking output (Shots For) with their opponent’s defensive weakness (Shots Conceded) to predict the likely total for the match.
Finding Value in SOT Markets
Bookmakers often set generic lines (e.g., Over 4.5 Shots) for every team. You can find an edge by analyzing specific matchups.
- Input Team Avg (For): How many shots on target do they average per game? (e.g., 6.5).
- Input Opponent Avg (Against): How many do they allow? (e.g., 3.5).
- Result: The calculator blends these stats. If the expected total is 5.0, but the bookie line is 3.5, take the Over.
Pro Tip: Goalkeeper Saves
You can also use this tool for Goalkeeper Saves. If you predict the opponent will have 6 Shots on Target, the Goalkeeper will likely make 4-5 Saves (assuming 1-2 goals).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What counts as a “Shot on Target”?
According to Opta stats (used by most bookies):
1. A shot that goes into the net (Goal).
2. A shot that would have gone in but was stopped by the goalkeeper.
3. A shot blocked by the last line defender.
Note: Hitting the post or crossbar does NOT count.