Sometimes you are confident a team will score, but you aren’t sure about the final result. In these cases, Team Total markets (e.g., “Home Team Over 1.5 Goals”) are safer than Match Winner bets.
This calculator focuses on one team. By inputting their Expected Goals (xG), it generates a full probability table for Exact Goals and Over/Under lines.
Over 1.5 vs. Over 2.5?
Use this tool to find the “tipping point.”
- Example: Team Expectancy is 1.9 Goals.
- Over 1.5 Goals: ~70% Probability. (Solid foundation bet).
- Over 2.5 Goals: ~30% Probability. (High risk).
The calculator also shows the probability of “Exactly 2 Goals”. If this probability is high, but the gap between Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 odds is huge, sticking to Over 1.5 is the mathematically safer play.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Do own goals count for Team Totals?
Yes. If the opponent scores an own goal, it is credited to your team’s score. Team Total markets simply care about the number on the scoreboard next to your team’s name.