Teasers are one of the most popular bets in the NFL and NBA, allowing you to “buy points” to move the spread in your favor. However, sportsbooks charge a premium for this privilege (usually -120 or -130 odds).
Most bettors only ask, “Will this cover?” Smart bettors ask, “Does this bet have value?” Our Teaser EV Calculator helps you look beyond the payout to determine the NFL teaser expected value. By inputting the win probability of each leg, you can instantly see if your teaser betting strategy is mathematically profitable or a long-term losing proposition.
| Leg Probability | Total Win % | EV ($) |
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This tool is designed to reverse-engineer the math of a teaser. Instead of calculating how much you will win, it calculates the probability of winning required to break even. Here is how to use it:
- Enter Teaser Odds: Input the price the sportsbook is charging. Standard 2-team / 6-point NFL teasers are often priced at -120 (1.83).
- Enter Wager: Input your bet amount to see the expected profit/loss in dollars.
- Input Leg Probabilities: This is the most critical step. You must estimate the win probability of each individual leg after the points are applied.
- Tip: For a standard “Wong Teaser” (crossing key numbers 3 and 7), historical data suggests a win rate of approximately 73% to 75% per leg.
- Analyze Results: The calculator will show your “True Edge.” If the EV is positive (Green), the bet is profitable in the long run. If negative (Red), the extra points aren’t worth the extra juice.
To understand basic strategy teaser edge, we need to look at the “Breakeven Percentage.” At -120 odds, you need to win 54.55% of your teasers to break even. Since a 2-team teaser requires both legs to win, each individual leg needs to hit roughly 73.9% of the time ($0.739 \times 0.739 \approx 0.546$).
You tease an underdog from +2.5 to +8.5 (crossing 3 and 7) and a favorite from -8.5 to -2.5 (crossing 7 and 3).
- Leg Probability: Historical data gives these specific moves a ~74% chance of covering.
- The Math: $0.74 \times 0.74 = 54.76\%$ Total Win Probability.
- Result: Since 54.76% is higher than the 54.55% break-even point, this bet has Positive Expected Value (+EV).
You tease through zero, moving a spread from -2 to +4. This is considered a mathematical error because “0” is not a key number in the NFL.
- Leg Probability: Without crossing key numbers, the probability drops to ~68%.
- The Math: $0.68 \times 0.68 = 46.24\%$ Total Win Probability.
- Result: You are paying -120 odds for a bet that will lose more than half the time. This is a massive Negative EV wager.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Named after gambling author Stanford Wong, a “Wong Teaser” is a strategy that involves playing a 2-team, 6-point teaser that captures the key numbers of 3 and 7. Specifically, teasing favorites of -7.5/-8.5 down to -1.5/-2.5, or underdogs of +1.5/+2.5 up to +7.5/+8.5. This wong teaser odds strategy historically provides enough value to overcome the juice.
What are the “Key Numbers” in NFL?
The most common margins of victory in the NFL are 3 points and 7 points. Teasing a line *through* these numbers (e.g., taking +2.5 to +8.5) is valuable because you turn a losing bet (lose by 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) into a winning bet.
Does this calculator account for correlation?
No. This calculator assumes the two legs are independent events (e.g., two different games). If you are teasing the Spread and Total of the same game, correlation exists, which alters the math significantly. For same-game teasers, the EV calculation is much more complex.
Why is the break-even percentage important?
The break-even percentage tells you how often you need to win just to not lose money. If your estimated win probability is lower than the break-even point derived from the odds, you should not make the bet, regardless of how “safe” it feels.