Tennis Player Props & Dominance Calculator

While the casual bettor focuses on who will win the match, the sharpest minds in tennis betting are looking at Player Props. Markets like “Player Total Games” or “To Win a Set” often have softer lines than the main Moneyline.

Furthermore, in matches with a heavy favorite (like Iga Swiatek or Novak Djokovic in early rounds), the only way to find value is often in the Dominance Markets — betting on a 6-0 set (a “Bagel”) or a 6-1 set (a “Breadstick”). Our Player Props & Dominance Calculator helps you determine the true mathematical probability of these specific events.

How to Use the Calculator

This tool is divided into three specialized tabs to cover different aspects of player performance:

1. Player Games Tab

Use this to analyze the “Individual Total” market (e.g., Alcaraz Over/Under 12.5 Games).

• Input: Enter the odds for Over and Under offered by your bookmaker.
• Result: The tool calculates the “True Probability” and the bookmaker’s margin, helping you spot if the line is skewed.

2. Dominance Tab (Bagel/Breadstick)

This is a statistical modeling tool. instead of just converting odds, you estimate the probability based on player skill.

• Hold Serve %: Use the slider to set the favorite’s expected hold rate (e.g., 90%).
• Break Serve %: Use the slider to set how often the favorite breaks the underdog (e.g., 40%).
• Result: The calculator uses probability theory to generate Fair Odds for a 6-0 or 6-1 scoreline. Compare this to the bookie’s price to find value.

3. Win a Set Tab

Use this for the “Player to Win at Least One Set” market.

• Input: Enter the Yes/No odds to see the implied probability.

Betting Strategy: Finding Value in Dominance

Betting on specific scores like 6-0 sounds risky, but the math often reveals huge value. Here is how to apply the calculator:

Example 1: The “Swiatek” Scenario (Bagel Hunting)

Iga Swiatek is playing a low-ranked opponent on clay.

• Stats: You check her recent stats and see she holds serve 85% of the time and breaks 55% of the time on clay.
• The Calculator: You input these stats into the Dominance Tab. The tool calculates that the fair price for a 6-0 set is roughly 8.50.
• The Market: The bookmaker is offering odds of 12.00 for “Any Set to Score 6-0”.
• Conclusion: Since the bookie’s payout (12.00) is higher than the fair price (8.50), this is a high-value bet.

Example 2: The “Service Bot” (Player Total Games)

You want to bet on Hubert Hurkacz “Over 12.5 Games” in a standard 3-set match.

• Logic: For Hurkacz to go over 12.5 games, he likely needs to win a set 7-6 or play 3 sets.
• Analysis: You input the odds into the Player Games Tab. You see the bookmaker is charging a 7.5% margin on this prop, whereas the main Moneyline only has a 3% margin. You might decide to skip the bet or wait for live odds due to the “tax” on this specific prop market.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)