In tennis betting, a match is a story told in chapters. A player might lose the war (the match) but win a specific battle (a set). The Set Markets allow astute bettors to profit from these specific moments — whether it’s a slow-starting favorite losing the first set, or two big servers grinding out a tie-break in the second.
Our Tennis Set Markets Suite is an all-in-one tool designed to analyze the specific odds for any given set (1st, 2nd, or 3rd). Instead of switching between different pages, use the tabs below to calculate fair probabilities for Set Winner, Total Games, Exact Set Score, and Tie-break props.
How to Use the Calculator
This calculator is built as a “Suite” with four dedicated tabs. Select the tab that matches the market you are analyzing:
1. Set Winner Tab
Use this for the standard Moneyline on a specific set.
- Input: Enter odds for Player 1 and Player 2 to win the set.
- Output: Reveals the “True Chance” and the bookmaker’s margin. This is crucial for live betting when momentum shifts.
2. Total Games Tab
Use this for Over/Under betting within a single set (e.g., Over 9.5 Games).
- Input: Enter the Over and Under odds.
- Insight: If the line is 9.5, you are essentially betting on whether the set will go to 6-4/7-5/7-6 (Over) or end quicker at 6-3 or less (Under).
3. Exact Score Tab
The high-risk, high-reward market.
- Input: Enter the odds for the most likely scores (e.g., 6-4, 7-6). You don’t need to fill in every single field; just fill the ones relevant to your analysis.
- Output: The tool converts the odds into percentages. If the sum of probabilities for 7-6 and 6-7 is high, it validates a “Tie-break” bet.
4. Tiebreak/Deuce Tab
Special props for “Yes/No” markets.
- Tie-break in Set: Will the score reach 6-6?
- Set to Deuce: Will the set reach 5-5? (Depending on bookmaker rules).
Betting Strategy: Isolating the Set
Why bet on sets instead of the match winner? Here are common scenarios where this calculator provides an edge:
Scenario A: The Slow Starter
Some top players (like Djokovic historically) take time to find their rhythm. They often drop the 1st Set or play it very close, before dominating the rest of the match.
Strategy: Use the Set Winner tab to find value on the Underdog winning Set 1, even if the Match Winner odds for the favorite are unplayable (e.g., 1.10).
Scenario B: The Service Battle
When Isner plays Opelka, breaks of serve are rare. The score is likely to go to 6-6.
Strategy: Use the Exact Score tab to analyze the implied probability of a 7-6 scoreline. Often, bookmakers price 7-6 at odds of 3.00-4.00, which might offer immense value compared to the “Over 12.5 Games” market which doesn’t exist in standard sets.
Scenario C: The Mental Collapse
If a player loses the 1st set in a heartbreaking tie-break, they often crumble in the 2nd set.
Strategy: Use the Total Games tab for the 2nd Set to look for value on “Under 9.5 Games” or “Under 8.5 Games,” anticipating a quick 6-2 or 6-1 victory for the momentum leader.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What happens to Set bets if a player retires?
If a set is completed before the retirement, all bets on that set stand. For example, if a player retires in the 2nd Set, bets on the 1st Set Winner and 1st Set Total Games are valid and settled. Bets on the unfinished 2nd Set are void.
Does “Set Total Games” include tie-breaks?
Yes. In betting, a tie-break counts as 1 game. Therefore, if a set ends 7-6, the total number of games is 13. If you bet “Over 12.5 Games” (rare line) or “Over 10.5 Games”, you win.
What is “Set to Deuce”?
This usually refers to the set score reaching 5-5. At 5-5, a player must win two consecutive games (7-5) to win without a tie-break, effectively mirroring the “Deuce” concept within a single game. Check your bookmaker’s specific definition.