Live betting markets often offer odds on “Goal to be scored between 60:00 and 74:59.” These odds can look tempting, but are they fair?
Goals are not distributed evenly. More goals are scored in the second half, and especially in the final 15 minutes. This calculator accounts for Time Decay and Intensity to give you the real odds for any 15-minute block.
Understanding Goal Distribution
To get an accurate prediction, you first need an idea of the Total Expected Goals for the match (e.g., from the Over/Under line).
- 0-15 Mins: Lowest probability. Teams are feeling each other out.
- 31-45 Mins: Higher probability (fatigue before halftime).
- 76-90 Mins: Highest probability. Desperation, tired legs, and substitutes lead to “Late Goals.”
Example: The Late Goal Value
In a match expected to have 3.0 goals total:
- 0-15 Min Odds: Fair price might be 4.50.
- 76-90 Min Odds: Fair price might be 2.80.
If a bookmaker offers 3.50 for a goal in the last 15 minutes, it is a Value Bet. If they offer 3.50 for the first 15 minutes, it is likely a bad bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Do these odds apply to “Next Goal” bets?
This tool calculates the chance of any goal being scored. It is best used for “Goal in Interval” or “Over 0.5 Goals in First Half” markets. For “Next Team to Score,” you need to factor in who is dominating possession.