Will both teams score? Will there be over 2.5 goals? These are the most popular markets in football betting.
Instead of guessing based on “gut feeling,” use our Poisson Predictor. By inputting the expected goal averages for the Home and Away teams, this tool calculates the mathematical probability of high-scoring or low-scoring games.
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How to Use the Predictor
- Home Exp. Goals: How many goals do you expect the home team to score? (Based on their attacking strength vs. away defense). e.g., 1.60.
- Away Exp. Goals: Same for the away team. e.g., 1.10.
- Generate: The tool loops through every possible scoreline (0-0, 1-0, … 5-5) to calculate the cumulative probability of:
- Over 2.5 Goals: Chance of 3 or more goals.
- BTTS (Yes): Chance of both teams scoring > 0.
Example: Finding Value in Overs
Stats: Man City (Avg 2.2 goals) vs. Real Madrid (Avg 1.4 goals).
- Calculator Result: Over 2.5 Probability = 65%. (Fair Odds: 1.54).
- Bookmaker Odds: 1.70.
Since the bookmaker is offering higher odds (1.70) than the fair probability suggests (1.54), this is a strong Value Bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Where do I find Expected Goals (xG)?
You can find xG stats on sites like Understat or FBref. Using xG (Expected Goals) provides a more accurate input than simple “Goals Scored” because it ignores luck/variance from previous matches.