Player Props are the fastest-growing segment in sports betting. Whether it is betting on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards or LeBron James’ point total, props offer excitement and detailed engagement.
However, sportsbooks typically charge a much higher “Vig” (fee) on props than they do on standard spreads. To win long-term, you cannot simply bet on what you think will happen; you must bet on lines where the mathematical probability is in your favor. Our Prop Bet Analyzer allows you to input your own projections to calculate the Expected Value (EV) and determine if a bet is truly worth making.
Prop Analyzer
How to Use the Prop Bet Calculator
This tool compares the Market Price (what the bookie offers) against your True Confidence (your model or projection). Here is the workflow:
- Select Sport: Choose between NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL to adjust the context (optional, but helps organization).
- Enter Wager & Odds: Input how much you want to bet and the odds offered by the sportsbook (e.g., -115).
- The tool will instantly show you the Implied Probability. This is the percentage of time you need to win just to break even against that price.
- Enter Your Model Win % (Crucial): This is where the magic happens. What do you (or your projection source) believe the actual chance of winning is?
- If you think a prop has a 60% chance of hitting, enter 60.
- Analyze the EV:
- Positive EV (+): Your projection is higher than the implied probability. This is a profitable bet in the long run.
- Negative EV (-): The bookmaker’s fee is too high for the risk. Avoid this bet.
Related Tools: If you need to convert American odds to Decimal or Fractional, use our Odds Converter. Once you find a positive EV prop, use the Kelly Criterion Calculator to verify the optimal bet size for your bankroll.
Real-World Examples: Finding Value in Props
Why isn’t a “likely winner” always a good bet? Because price matters.
Example 1: The “Bad Value” Favorite
You want to bet Tyreek Hill Over 85.5 Receiving Yards. The sportsbook lists this at -150 odds.
- Implied Probability: 60%.
- Your Projection: You believe he hits this 58% of the time.
- Result: Negative EV (-3.33%).
- Verdict: Even though he is “more likely than not” to go over (58%), the sportsbook is charging you a price that requires 60% certainty. This is a losing bet long-term.
Example 2: The “Hidden Gem” Underdog
You are looking at a Strikeout Prop for a pitcher at +120 odds.
- Implied Probability: 45.45%.
- Your Projection: Your model suggests this is a coin flip (50% chance).
- Result: Positive EV (+10.0%).
- Verdict: Even though the prop fails 50% of the time, the payout (+120) is generous enough to make this highly profitable over a large sample size.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Where can I find “Model Win %”?
You can generate this number using your own statistical analysis, or by using reputable projection sites (like FantasyPros, PFF, or Action Network) that project stat lines. Compare their projected success rate against the sportsbook odds.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the average amount of money you would expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same wager on the same event an infinite number of times. Positive EV means you have an edge over the house.
Why are Prop Odds usually -115 or -120?
Standard spreads are usually -110. Props have higher variance and are harder for bookmakers to price perfectly, so they charge higher “Juice” (typically -115 or higher) to protect themselves. This makes finding EV even more important.
What is the “Kelly Recommendation”?
If you find a Positive EV bet, the Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal percentage of your bankroll to wager to maximize growth while minimizing the risk of ruin. Our calculator displays this automatically when EV is positive.