The core principle of profitable betting is finding Value — where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of the outcome. This gives you a positive Expected Value (EV).
Our calculator compares the market odds with your own model’s probability estimate to determine your mathematical edge and recommends the ideal stake size to maximize your bankroll growth.
How to Use the Value Bet Calculator
- Bookmaker Odds: Enter the Decimal odds currently offered by the bookmaker (e.g., 2.10).
- Your Win Probability (%): Enter your estimated chance of the outcome winning (e.g., 50%). This is the hardest part and requires strong analysis (xG, Poisson, or statistical modeling).
- Current Bankroll ($): Enter your total funds for risk management (e.g., 1000).
- Analyze the Results: The tool calculates the “Fair Odds” (what the odds should be), your percentage edge (Value), and the money you can expect to earn per $100 staked (EV).
Example: Finding the Edge
Imagine the market offers 2.10 on a team winning. The implied probability is roughly 1 / 2.10 = 47.6%.
However, your deep analysis (or modeling) suggests the team has a 50% chance of winning.
- Your Edge: 50% vs 47.6% = 2.4%
- Expected Value (EV): The calculator shows a positive EV. For every $100 staked, you expect to gain money over the long run.
- Stake Recommendation: Based on the Kelly Criterion, the calculator will recommend a small percentage of your bankroll (e.g., 2.5% or $25) to bet, protecting your capital while exploiting the edge.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Expected Value (EV) in betting?
EV is the amount of money you can expect to win or lose per unit staked if you repeated the same bet many times. Positive EV means you are making a profit long-term; negative EV means you are losing money, even if you win sometimes.
How do I determine my Win Probability?
Accurately determining your win probability is the hard part of value betting. It is typically done using advanced statistical models like Poisson distribution, regression analysis, or specialized xG (Expected Goals) data, rather than intuition.