A Wincast is a bet on a specific player to score AND their team to win. A Scorecast is even harder: Player to Score + Correct Score.
Bookmakers love these bets because they offer high odds, but they often apply a heavy “Correlation Tax.” If a star striker scores, his team is naturally more likely to win. This calculator adjusts for that correlation to show you the Fair Odds vs. the Bookie’s Offer.
How to Find Value in Wincasts
You shouldn’t just multiply the odds of the Goalscorer and the Win. That ignores the link between the two events.
- Scorer Prob (%): Enter the independent chance of the player scoring (e.g., derived from Anytime Scorer odds).
- Win Prob (%): Enter the chance of the team winning.
- Analyze: The calculator applies a “Correlation Boost.”
- If Harry Kane scores, Bayern Munich’s chance of winning goes UP.
- The calculator output shows the Joint Probability. If the bookie’s odds are better than this, it’s a +EV bet.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why are Wincast odds lower than a standard parlay?
Because the events are related. Standard parlays assume independence. In a Wincast, the bookmaker reduces the odds because the first leg (Goal) makes the second leg (Win) much more likely to happen.
Is Scorecast a good bet?
Generally, no. The margin on Correct Score markets is already high. Combining it with a Goalscorer adds even more margin. It is a “fun” bet with massive variance, but rarely a professional investment.