Sometimes you know a team will win, but the odds (e.g., 1.20) are too low to bet. The Winning Margin market offers a solution. Betting on “Home to win by exactly 1 Goal” often pays 3.50 or more.
This calculator analyzes the expected scorelines to tell you how likely a “Blowout” (3+ goals) is versus a “Close Game” (1 goal margin).
Finding Value in Margins
Teams have personalities. Some, like Manchester City, play for “3+ Goal” margins. Others, like Atletico Madrid or Juventus, are famous for “1 Goal” wins.
How to Read the Results
- Win by 1: High probability for defensive teams or evenly matched games.
- Win by 2: The standard “comfortable” win (2-0, 3-1).
- Win by 3+: Only valuable when there is a massive skill gap.
If our calculator says “Home by 1” has a 30% probability (Fair Odds 3.33) and the bookie offers 4.00, you have found significant value on a close game.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does “Win by 2” cover “Win by 3”?
No. In the Winning Margin market, you are betting on the Exact margin. “Win by 2” only wins on scores like 2-0, 3-1, 4-2. If they win 3-0, your bet loses. This precision is why the odds are so high.