Baccarat is a game of speed and simplicity, often dealing more hands per hour than any other table game. This speed creates massive Variance. Even with a house edge as low as 1.06%, a player can experience wild bankroll swings in a very short amount of time.
Many players try to tame this volatility with betting systems like the Martingale or Paroli. But do they work? Our Baccarat Variance Simulator runs a Monte Carlo analysis of 1,000 sessions in seconds. It visualizes exactly what happens to your money when you apply these strategies against the mathematical reality of the Banker Commission and Table Limits.
Baccarat Variance Sim
Monte CarloHow to Use the Simulator
This tool allows you to “stress test” your betting strategy without risking a single dollar. Here is how to configure your simulation:
- Set Financials:
- Starting Bankroll: The total buy-in for the session.
- Base Bet Unit: Your initial wager (e.g., $25).
- Table Limit: The maximum bet allowed. This is crucial for testing the Martingale, as the limit is what usually causes the system to fail.
- Choose Your Side: Select Banker (1.06% Edge) or Player (1.24% Edge). The simulator accounts for the 5% commission on Banker wins.
- Select Strategy:
- Flat Betting: Same bet every hand.
- Martingale: Double your bet after every loss (Negative Progression).
- Paroli: Double your bet after a win up to 3 times (Positive Progression).
- Analyze the Data: Look at the Risk of Ruin (RoR). If this number is high (e.g., >20%), your bankroll is too small for your chosen strategy.
Real-World Examples: System vs. Reality
Why do systems fail? The simulator reveals the hidden dangers of progression betting.
Example 1: The Martingale Trap
You start with a $500 bankroll and bet $25 on the Player using the Martingale system.
- The Logic: You double your bet after a loss ($25, $50, $100, $200, $400) to recover losses.
- The Simulation: You might see a high probability of a small profit. However, the Risk of Ruin will be significant. A losing streak of just 5 hands requires a $800 bet, which exceeds your total bankroll. The simulator visualizes this “cliff edge” where your balance hits zero.
Example 2: The Flat Bet Grind
You bet $50 on Banker consistently for 100 hands.
- The Simulation: You will see a “Cloud” of outcomes centered around a small loss (due to the House Edge).
- The Insight: While you won’t get rich quick, your Risk of Ruin is near 0%. This proves that flat betting is the best strategy for extending playtime and earning comps/points.
Example 3: The Paroli “Shot Taking”
You use the Paroli system (1-2-4) aiming to catch a streak of 3 wins.
- The Simulation: The graph will show many small downward trends (failed attempts) interspersed with sharp vertical spikes (successful streaks).
- The Result: This creates a “Lottery Ticket” effect. The simulator helps you decide if you have the patience for this high-volatility approach.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is the Banker bet better than the Player bet?
The Banker hand acts last, giving it a slight positional advantage. Even with the 5% commission deducted on wins, the Banker bet has a House Edge of 1.06%, whereas the Player bet has a House Edge of 1.24%. Over thousands of hands simulation, Banker bets preserve your bankroll longer.
What is “Max Drawdown”?
Max Drawdown is the largest drop your bankroll experiences from a peak to a trough during a session. If you start with $1,000, go up to $1,200, and then drop to $600, your drawdown is $600. Knowing this number helps you bring enough cash to survive the inevitable swings.
Does the simulator account for Ties?
Yes. Ties occur roughly 9.5% of the time. In Baccarat, a Tie is a “Push” for Player and Banker bets (your money is returned). Our simulator correctly models this, extending the session without affecting your profit/loss, which dilutes the volatility slightly compared to games without pushes.