Baccarat is one of the simplest casino games to play — and one of the most misunderstood when it comes to the math. The Banker bet is usually the best standard main wager on a conventional baccarat table, but the 5% commission on winning Banker bets confuses many players into thinking Player is the better choice. At standard commission, it is not.
Our Baccarat Commission Calculator compares the house edge, EV per hand, and hourly cost for Banker, Player, and Tie at any commission rate. It also handles non-standard commission variants (4%, 3%, commission-free) and shows exactly when and why Banker stops being the best bet.
What this tool does and does not do:
- Compares Banker, Player, and Tie side-by-side at your bet size, commission rate, and table speed.
- Shows the break-even commission rate where Player becomes better than Banker.
- Calculates hourly savings if your table offers reduced commission.
- Does not model side bets (Dragon Bonus, Pairs, etc.) — see our Baccarat Side Bets EV Calculator for those.
Baccarat Commission Calculator
Banker · Player · TieHow to Use the Calculator
- Enter bet amount: Your standard wager per hand.
- Enter commission rate: Standard is 5%. Some tables offer 4%, 3%, or commission-free variants. Enter the actual rate.
- Select Tie payout: Standard is 8:1. Some tables pay 9:1.
- Enter table speed: Mini-baccarat is fast (150+ hands/hr). Full-table baccarat is slower (40-70 hands/hr).
- Read the results: Three-column comparison showing edge, hourly cost, and which bet is best at your commission rate. Plus commission savings vs. standard 5%.
The Probabilities
Baccarat outcome probabilities are determined by exact combinatorial analysis. For an 8-deck shoe:
| Outcome | Probability | Hands per 1,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.86% | ~459 |
| Player wins | 44.62% | ~446 |
| Tie | 9.52% | ~95 |
Banker wins more often than Player (45.86% vs 44.62%) because of the drawing rules — specifically, Banker draws third based on knowledge of Player’s third card. This 1.24 percentage-point advantage is why the casino charges commission on Banker wins.
House Edge by Bet
| Bet | House Edge (8-deck, standard rules) |
|---|---|
| Banker (5% commission) | 1.06% |
| Player | 1.24% |
| Tie (8:1 payout) | 14.36% |
| Tie (9:1 payout) | 4.84% |
Banker is always the best bet at standard 5% commission. The 1.06% edge is among the lowest in any casino game — comparable to Craps Pass Line and better than most Blackjack tables with average players.
Player is slightly worse at 1.24% — still one of the better casino bets, but mathematically inferior to Banker at standard 5% commission. The break-even point is roughly 5.4% commission — above that, Player becomes the better bet.
Tie should be avoided. At 14.36% house edge (8:1 payout), the Tie bet is one of the worst standard wagers in the casino. Even at 9:1 payout (4.84%), it is significantly worse than both Banker and Player.
When Does Commission Matter?
Reduced Commission Tables
Some casinos offer reduced commission to attract Banker bettors:
| Commission | Banker Edge | Savings vs 5% (per $100/hand, 70 hands/hr) |
|---|---|---|
| 5% (standard) | 1.06% | $0.00 (baseline) |
| 4% | 0.60% | $3.22/hr |
| 3% | 0.14% | $6.44/hr |
| 2% | +0.32% (theoretical player advantage) | $9.66/hr |
At 3% commission, Banker edge drops to 0.14% — among the lowest edges in any casino game. At around 2% commission, the math would flip and create a theoretical player edge on the Banker bet — but in practice, tables offering terms that favorable usually come with other rule changes or restrictions.
“Commission-Free” Baccarat
Commission-free baccarat does not charge the 5% commission, but it changes the payout: winning Banker bets on a total of 6 typically pay only 50% (1:2) instead of even money (1:1). This modification creates a house edge on Banker of approximately 1.46% — worse than standard 5% commission Banker (1.06%). In commission-free games, Player (1.24%) becomes the best mathematical bet, not Banker. The name “commission-free” is marketing, not a mathematical improvement for Banker bettors.
Break-Even Commission
Banker becomes worse than Player at a commission rate above approximately 5.4%. This is remarkably close to the standard 5% — which is why Banker is only slightly better than Player under normal rules. Above this threshold, Player is the mathematically superior bet. The calculator shows this break-even point.
Speed Matters
Baccarat hourly cost is heavily influenced by table speed:
| Format | Speed | Hourly Cost ($100 Banker, 5%) |
|---|---|---|
| Full table (big baccarat) | 40 hands/hr | $42.40 |
| Midi baccarat | 60 hands/hr | $63.60 |
| Mini baccarat | 120 hands/hr | $127.20 |
| Speed / EZ baccarat | 180 hands/hr | $190.80 |
At $100/hand, the same bet costs 4.5× more per hour at Speed Baccarat than at a full table — assuming the same edge and betting behavior. If bankroll preservation matters, choose the slowest table available.
Limitations
- Exact probabilities assume a full 8-deck shoe. Card removal effects exist but are negligible for practical purposes (edge counting in baccarat produces tiny advantages compared to Blackjack).
- Commission-free variants differ by casino. The “Banker on 6 pays 50%” rule is the most common, but some casinos use other modifications. Always check the specific rule at your table.
- No side bets modeled here. Dragon Bonus, Pairs, Super 6, and other side bets have separate house edges (typically 2-15%). See the Side Bets EV Calculator.
- Pattern tracking does not work. Baccarat scoreboards (“roads”) are provided by the casino for entertainment. Past results do not predict future outcomes. Each hand is dealt from a well-shuffled shoe and is statistically independent of previous hands.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is Banker better than Player if they both pay 1:1?
Banker does not truly pay 1:1 — the net payout is 0.95:1 after the 5% commission. In online baccarat, this is deducted automatically. In live casinos, the dealer typically pays 1:1 but tracks the 5% owed with a marker, which you pay when leaving the table or at the end of the shoe. Either way, Banker wins 45.86% of the time vs Player’s 44.62%. The higher win frequency more than compensates for the commission at standard rates, resulting in a lower house edge (1.06% vs 1.24%).
Should I always bet Banker?
At standard 5% commission, Banker is the mathematically strongest main bet. The advantage over Player is small (0.18% per hand), so some players alternate for variety. From a pure main-bet EV perspective, Banker is the optimal standard choice at a normal 5% commission table. At commission-free tables, Player is better.
Is “commission-free” baccarat better?
Usually not for Banker bettors. The most common commission-free variant pays only 50% on Banker wins with a total of 6, which creates a house edge of approximately 1.46% — worse than the 1.06% at a standard 5% commission table. If you play at a commission-free table, Player (1.24%) is the better bet. The name “commission-free” is marketing, not a mathematical improvement.
Does the Tie bet ever make sense?
Not from a mathematical perspective. At 14.36% house edge (8:1), the Tie bet costs roughly 10-13× more per hand than Banker or Player. Even at 9:1 payout (4.84% edge), it is significantly worse. The only scenario where Tie could hypothetically have value is a shoe with extreme composition bias — but this is virtually impossible to identify in practice.
Do baccarat patterns (“roads”) predict outcomes?
No. Baccarat is dealt from a shuffled shoe, and each hand is statistically independent of previous results. The casino provides scoreboards because players enjoy tracking patterns — and because pattern-tracking players tend to stay at the table longer and bet more. The patterns have no predictive value.