Baccarat is the favorite game of high rollers for a reason: it offers one of the lowest House Edges in the casino (1.06% on the Banker). However, low house edge does not mean zero risk. The subtle drag of the 5% commission on Banker wins and the variance of the cards can still decimate a bankroll.
Standard “Gambler’s Ruin” calculators often fail with Baccarat because they treat it like a coin flip. Our Baccarat Risk of Ruin Calculator is different. It uses a Monte Carlo simulation to account for the specific probabilities of Banker vs. Player wins, the “Push” effect of Tie hands, and the commission structure, giving you a realistic probability of reaching your profit target versus going bust.
Baccarat Risk of Ruin
High StakesHow to Use the Calculator
To get an accurate forecast of your session, you need to define your limits clearly. Here is how to configure the simulation:
- Select Your Bet:
- Banker: The mathematically superior bet. Wins 45.86% of the time, loses 44.62% of the time. Pays 0.95 to 1.
- Player: Slightly higher risk. Wins 44.62% of the time, loses 45.86% of the time. Pays 1 to 1.
- Enter Bankroll & Unit Size:
- Bankroll: The total funds available for this session (e.g., $1,000).
- Unit Size: Your flat bet amount (e.g., $25). Pro Tip: A bankroll of at least 40-50 units is recommended for Baccarat.
- Set Target Profit: The “Walk Away” number. If you don’t have a stop-win limit, your risk of ruin is eventually 100%.
- Analyze the Results: The tool will run thousands of simulated hands to show you the percentage chance that you will lose your entire bankroll before hitting your target profit.
Real-World Examples: The “Commission” Drag
In Baccarat, the Banker bet wins more often, but the 5% tax makes recovering from losses slightly harder than in “Even Money” games like Roulette. Here is how the math plays out.
Example 1: The “Safe” Banker Strategy
You have $1,000. You bet $25 on Banker. You want to win $200.
- The Math: You have 40 betting units. Your target is only +8 units.
- Risk of Ruin: Very Low (~5%). The high frequency of Banker wins (excluding ties) keeps your head above water, and the bankroll is deep enough to absorb variance.
Example 2: The Aggressive Player Strategy
You have $200. You bet $25 on Player. You want to win $200 (Double Up).
- The Math: You only have 8 bullets (units). You are betting on the underdog (Player hand loses more often than it wins).
- Risk of Ruin: High (~60%). Without the buffer of a large bankroll, a short streak of Banker wins will wipe you out before you can double your money.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is the Risk of Ruin different for Banker vs. Player?
The Banker hand has a positional advantage (drawing last), meaning it wins more often (45.86%) than the Player hand (44.62%). Even with the 5% commission on wins, the Banker bet generally offers a slightly better survival rate (lower Risk of Ruin) over a long session than the Player bet.
How do “Ties” affect my risk?
In standard Baccarat, if the result is a Tie, your bet on Banker or Player is returned (Push). This doesn’t change your bankroll, but it extends the time you are playing. Our calculator accounts for this by treating ties as “no action” events that delay the outcome but don’t directly cause ruin.
Does betting the “Tie” increase risk?
Yes, massively. The Tie bet has a House Edge of over 14%. If you bet on the Tie, your Risk of Ruin is nearly 100% in the long run. This calculator focuses only on the main bets (Banker/Player) as serious players avoid the Tie bet entirely.