The scariest moment in Blackjack is holding a “Hard 16.” You know you need to improve to beat the dealer, but you also know a high card will destroy your hand.
This Bust Probability Calculator shows you the exact mathematical risk of hitting. It analyzes the deck composition (assuming an infinite deck) to tell you how likely you are to exceed 21.
Understanding the Bust Math
In Blackjack, there are more cards with a value of 10 (10, Jack, Queen, King) than any other value. This makes the risk of busting higher than intuition suggests.
The Danger Zone
- Hard 11 or less: 0% Bust Chance. (You can’t bust on one card).
- Hard 12: ~31% Bust Chance. (Only 10s hurt you).
- Hard 16: ~62% Bust Chance. (Any card above 5 busts you).
- Hard 20: ~92% Bust Chance. (Only an Ace saves you).
Use this tool to memorize the “Safe” vs “Dangerous” hands, but remember: sometimes you must take the risk (e.g., 16 vs Dealer 10) because the alternative (Standing) is a guaranteed loss in the long run.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does the dealer have the same bust chance?
Yes and no. The math of drawing a card is the same, but the Dealer must hit until 17. This forces them to take risks that a player might avoid. This constraint is the primary source of the Player’s advantage in certain situations.