Blackjack Decision EV Calculator

Every Blackjack player knows they should hit a Hard 16 against a Dealer’s 7. But do you know why? And more importantly, do you know how much money it costs you if you don’t?

Basic Strategy charts tell you what to do, but they don’t tell you the Expected Value (EV) of the move. Our Blackjack Decision EV Calculator reveals the hidden math of the game. It calculates the exact profitability of Hitting, Standing, Doubling, or Splitting for any specific hand setup, allowing you to quantify the “Cost of Errors.”

How to Use the Calculator

This tool is an educational engine designed to refine your decision-making process. Here is how to analyze a hand:

1. Configure the Rules:
   • H17 vs S17: Does the dealer Hit or Stand on Soft 17? (H17 is common in Vegas; S17 is better for the player).
   • DAS: Is “Double After Split” allowed? Keep this checked for most modern games.
2. Select Your Cards: Click the card slots to input your hand (e.g., Jack and 6).
3. Select Dealer Up-Card: Input the card the dealer is showing.
4. Analyze the EV Grid:
   • The calculator shows four values (e.g., Hit: -0.41).
   • The highest number (closest to positive) is the mathematically correct move.
   • The difference between the best move and your “gut feeling” is the amount of money you lose on average by making the wrong choice.

Related Tools: Blackjack is a game of managing a bankroll through variance. Use the Risk of Ruin Calculator to see if your bankroll can survive the swings. To optimize your bet sizing when you have an edge (card counting), professional players use the Kelly Criterion Calculator.

Real-World Examples: The Price of Fear

In Blackjack, intuition is your enemy. Here is how the EV Calculator exposes costly mistakes.

Example 1: The “Hard 16” Nightmare

You have: 10 + 6 (16)
Dealer shows: 7

• Intuition: “I’m going to bust if I hit. I’ll stand and hope the dealer busts.”
• The Math (EV):
  • Stand: -0.48 EV (You lose 48 cents on the dollar).
  • Hit: -0.41 EV (You lose 41 cents on the dollar).
• The Lesson: Both options are losing, but Hitting loses less. Standing here is a mathematical error that costs you 7% of your bet every time.

Example 2: Splitting 8s vs 10

You have: 8 + 8 (16)
Dealer shows: 10

• Intuition: “The dealer has a 20. If I split, I’ll just lose two hands instead of one.”
• The Math (EV):
  • Stand (on 16): -0.54 EV.
  • Split: -0.48 EV (combined).
• The Lesson: This is a “Defensive Split.” You are splitting not to win, but to lose less than you would by keeping a doomed 16.

Example 3: The “Soft 18” Trap

You have: A + 7 (Soft 18)
Dealer shows: 9

• Intuition: “18 is a good hand. I’ll Stand.”
• The Math (EV): Standing is actually a losing play (-0.10 EV). Hitting is the correct move because Soft 18 is not strong enough to beat a dealer showing a 9 or 10 on the long run.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)