Craps players are often taught one golden rule: “Always take the max odds.” Mathematically, this is true—the “Free Odds” bet has a 0% House Edge. However, there is a catch that most guides ignore: Volatility.
By taking 3x, 5x, or 10x odds, you are drastically increasing the amount of money on the table per shooter. If your bankroll isn’t deep enough to handle the swings, you will go bust (Ruin) long before the “zero house edge” mathematics works in your favor. Our Craps Risk of Ruin Calculator uses a Monte Carlo simulator to mimic thousands of shooters, showing you the realistic probability of losing your bankroll based on your betting strategy.
Craps Risk of Ruin
🎲 🎲How to Use the Calculator
This tool helps you balance the “Math” (low edge) with the “Reality” (bankroll preservation). Here is how to set up your simulation:
- Select Strategy:
- Pass Line: You bet with the shooter. You win on 7/11, lose on 2/3/12. (House Edge: 1.41%).
- Don’t Pass: You bet against the shooter. You win on 2/3, lose on 7/11. (House Edge: 1.36%).
- Enter Bankroll & Flat Bet:
- Bankroll: Your total buy-in.
- Flat Bet Size: Your initial bet on the line (e.g., $10).
- Select Odds Multiplier: This is the most critical setting.
- 0x (No Odds): Low variance, higher house edge.
- 3-4-5x Odds: The Vegas standard. Moderate variance.
- 10x Odds: Extremely high variance. Requires a massive bankroll.
- Set Target Profit: The amount you want to win before walking away.
Real-World Examples: The “Max Odds” Trap
The biggest mistake new players make is betting too big relative to their bankroll in the pursuit of a lower house edge. Here is the math behind it.
Example 1: The Conservative Player (1x Odds)
You have $500. You bet $10 Pass Line with 1x Odds ($10). Target: $200.
- Total Risk per Shooter: $20.
- Bankroll Depth: 25 Shooters ($500 / $20).
- Risk of Ruin: Low. You have plenty of “ammo” to survive a streak of “Seven Outs.” You will likely reach your profit goal.
Example 2: The Aggressive Player (5x Odds)
You have the same $500. You bet $10 Pass Line with 5x Odds ($50). Target: $200.
- Total Risk per Shooter: $60.
- Bankroll Depth: ~8 Shooters ($500 / $60).
- Risk of Ruin: High. Even though the House Edge is lower on this bet, your risk of going bust is much higher. A “cold table” where 8 shooters fail to make a point will wipe you out completely. To play 5x odds safely, you would need a bankroll of at least $1,500.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why does taking “Free Odds” increase my Risk of Ruin?
Mathematically, Free Odds reduce the combined House Edge. However, they increase your Standard Deviation (Variance). You are betting more money per round. If you don’t increase your bankroll to match the increased bet size, your probability of going bust (Ruin) increases significantly in the short term.
What is the safest strategy for a small bankroll?
If you have a small bankroll (e.g., $200-$300), stick to the Pass Line (or Don’t Pass) with 1x Odds. Alternatively, place the 6 and 8. Avoid “Prop Bets” (hardways, horn bets) entirely, as they have high house edges and high volatility.
Is “Don’t Pass” safer than “Pass Line”?
Slightly. The Don’t Pass has a marginally lower House Edge (1.36% vs 1.41%). However, when Laying Odds on the Don’t Pass, you have to risk more to win less (e.g., laying $60 to win $50 on the 6). This can drain a bankroll faster during a “hot” streak of shooters making points.