Normally, slots have a negative Expected Value (-EV). However, Progressive Jackpots are different. As the pot grows, the effective RTP of the game increases.
Eventually, the jackpot becomes so large that the game becomes mathematically profitable (+EV) to play. This tool calculates that exact Break-Even Point.
Jackpot EV
How to Find +EV Jackpots
- Base Game RTP: The return from non-jackpot spins (usually lower on progressives, e.g., 88-92%).
- Jackpot Contribution: The % of every bet that feeds the pot (e.g., 3%).
- Seed Amount: The amount the jackpot resets to after being won.
- Current Jackpot: The current ticker value.
- Result: If the “Effective RTP” is over 100%, you have a mathematical edge over the casino.
Example: The “Must Drop” Jackpot
Imagine a slot with a 92% Base RTP and a 4% contribution.
- Seed: $10,000.
- Current Pot: $10,000. Total RTP: 96% (House Edge 4%).
- Current Pot: $30,000. Total RTP: 104% (Player Edge 4%).
At $30,000, for every $100 you bet, you expect to get back $104 (on average, factoring in the eventual jackpot win). This is when “Advantage Players” start spinning.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does +EV guarantee I will win the jackpot?
No. It means the average return is profitable. However, the variance is massive. You could spend thousands chasing a +EV jackpot and still lose if someone else hits it before you.