Every roulette player asks the same question: “If I start with $100, what are the odds I can double it to $200 before I lose everything?”
This is not a question of luck; it is a question of mathematics known as “Gambler’s Ruin.” Because the casino has a mathematical edge (the Zero), the longer you play, the higher the probability that your bankroll will hit zero. Our Roulette Risk of Ruin Calculator uses advanced probability theory and Monte Carlo simulations to tell you the cold, hard truth about your betting strategy. It calculates the exact percentage chance of going bust versus reaching your profit goal.
Risk of Ruin
RouletteHow to Use the Calculator
To get an accurate assessment of your survival chances, you need to be honest about your stopping point. Here is how to configure the simulation:
- Select the Wheel:
- European (Single Zero): Best for players. House edge is only 2.70%.
- American (Double Zero): High risk. House edge is 5.26%.
- Enter Your Bankroll: The total amount of money you are willing to lose in this session (e.g., $200).
- Set Your Bet Size: Your base unit. Note: Smaller bets relative to your bankroll significantly lower your risk of ruin.
- Set Your Target Win: This is your “Walk Away” number. If you want to turn $100 into $150, your Target Win is $50.
- Analyze the “Probability of Ruin”: A result of 50% means it is a coin flip whether you leave a winner or a loser. A result of 90% means your strategy is too aggressive.
Real-World Examples: The “Grind” vs. The “Shot”
Your betting style dramatically changes your risk profile. Here is how different strategies look mathematically.
Example 1: The Conservative Grinder (Even Money)
You have $100. You bet $5 on Red. You want to win $20 (Profit).
- The Math: You have 20 betting units ($100/$5). You only need to win 4 net units.
- Risk of Ruin: Very Low (~10%). Because your bet size is small and your target is modest, you will likely achieve your goal before going bust.
Example 2: The Aggressive High-Roller (Straight Up)
You have $100. You bet $5 on Number 17. You want to win $500.
- The Math: You are betting on a 35:1 payout. The volatility is massive.
- Risk of Ruin: Very High (~85%+). While the payout is huge, the likelihood of losing the $100 before hitting the number often enough to reach +$500 is statistically high.
Example 3: The American Wheel Trap
If you take the exact same strategy from Example 1 but switch to an American Wheel (adding the 00), your Risk of Ruin jumps significantly. The extra zero acts as a “tax” on every spin, draining your bankroll faster and making it harder to reach the target.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “Risk of Ruin”?
Risk of Ruin is the mathematical probability that your bankroll will drop to zero before you reach your target profit. If you play forever without a stopping limit (Target Win), your Risk of Ruin is always 100% because the house edge will eventually consume everything.
Does the Martingale system lower the Risk of Ruin?
No. Actually, Martingale (doubling bets after a loss) often increases the Risk of Ruin because it forces you to bet huge amounts to recover small losses. You are likely to hit the table limit or run out of cash during a losing streak.
Why is the risk higher on American Roulette?
American Roulette has two green pockets (0 and 00), creating a House Edge of 5.26%. European Roulette has only one (0), with a House Edge of 2.7%. That extra “00” dramatically increases the frequency of losses, depleting your bankroll faster.