Every roulette player knows the House Edge exists. But asking “What is the House Edge?” doesn’t tell you whether you will double your money or go bust in the next hour. To understand that, you need to understand Variance.
Our Roulette Variance Calculator (powered by a Monte Carlo Simulator) runs 1,000 virtual sessions in seconds. By analyzing thousands of spins, it generates a realistic distribution of outcomes, showing you not just the mathematical average, but the “Best Case,” “Worst Case,” and your total Risk of Ruin.
Roulette Simulator
Monte CarloHow to Use the Roulette Statistics Calculator
This tool is designed to stress-test your betting strategy against the math of the wheel. Here is how to configure your simulation:
- Set Your Bankroll: Enter the total amount of money you are willing to risk in this session.
- Configure the Bet:
- Base Bet Size: Your initial wager unit.
- Bet Target: Choose between Even Money bets (Red/Black), Columns (2:1), or Straight Up numbers (35:1). Higher payouts inherently come with higher variance.
- Select Wheel Type:
- European: Single Zero (2.70% House Edge). Best for the player.
- American: Double Zero (5.26% House Edge). High volatility and faster losses.
- Define Duration (Speed): Enter the Total Spins.
- Tip: A typical live dealer table spins about 50 times per hour. If you plan to play for 2 hours, enter 100 spins.
- Choose Strategy:
- Flat Betting: Betting the same amount every spin.
- Martingale: Doubling your bet after every loss to recover previous losses.
Real-World Examples: Variance in Action
Why is a simulator better than a simple calculator? Because it reveals the dangers of “Systems.”
Example 1: The Martingale System (High Risk)
You have a $500 bankroll and bet $10 on Red. You plan to use the Martingale strategy for 100 spins.
- Average Result: You might see a small profit (e.g., +$40).
- The Hidden Danger: The simulator reveals a Risk of Ruin of ~15-20%. This means that in 1 out of 5 sessions, you will hit a losing streak long enough to wipe out your entire $500. A standard EV calculator cannot show you this catastrophic risk.
Example 2: Straight Up Betting (High Variance)
You bet $5 on a single number for 100 spins.
- Win Chance: Low (you will likely lose money in most sessions).
- Best 5% (Lucky Run): However, the simulator shows that in the “Best 5%” of scenarios, you could end up up +$600 or more.
- Insight: This proves that straight-up betting is a “Boom or Bust” strategy, unlike betting on Red/Black which offers a smoother ride.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “Max Drawdown” in roulette?
Max Drawdown is the largest drop in your bankroll from a peak to a trough during a session. Even if you finish the session in profit, a high drawdown (e.g., dropping from $500 to $50 before recovering) indicates a very risky strategy that requires “nerves of steel.”
Does the “Total Spins” input matter?
Yes. This acts as a Roulette Speed Calculator input. The longer you play (more spins), the more the “Law of Large Numbers” takes effect. Over a short period (10 spins), you can easily beat the house. Over a long period (1,000+ spins), the negative RTP (Return to Player) makes it mathematically nearly impossible to stay in profit.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that predicts possible outcomes of an uncertain event. Instead of using a single formula, our calculator virtually “plays” thousands of roulette sessions to show you the probability distribution of winning or going bust.
Why is the American Wheel riskier?
The American wheel has an extra “Double Zero” (00). This increases the House Edge from 2.7% (European) to 5.26%. In our simulator, you will notice your “Average Result” degrades much faster and your “Risk of Ruin” is higher when selecting the American wheel.