You sit down with $200, hoping to double it to $400. You are playing a machine with 96% RTP. What are your chances of success?
Most players assume their chances are close to 50/50, but they are wrong. In slot machines, Volatility (or Variance) is the silent bankroll killer. A high-volatility slot can drain your funds rapidly before you ever see that 96% return. Our Slots Risk of Ruin Calculator uses Monte Carlo simulations to model thousands of spinning sessions, giving you a realistic probability of hitting your target win versus losing everything.
Slots Risk of Ruin
How to Use the Calculator
Calculating risk for slots is more complex than for Roulette or Blackjack because payouts are not 1:1. Here is how to configure the tool for accurate results:
- Select Volatility Level:
- Low: Choose this for games like Starburst or classic 3-reelers where you get frequent, small wins.
- Medium: The standard video slot experience (e.g., Gonzo’s Quest).
- High: Choose this for “All or Nothing” games (e.g., Dead or Alive, Bonanza) where you endure long losing streaks waiting for a massive bonus round.
- Enter Financials:
- Bankroll: The cash you have right now.
- Bet Size: Your stake per spin. lowering your bet size is the fastest way to reduce risk.
- Set Your Goal:
- Target Win: The profit amount at which you will cash out. If you want to double a $100 bankroll, your target win is $100.
- Input RTP (%): The theoretical Return to Player found in the game’s info screen (usually 94% – 97%).
Real-World Examples: The Volatility Trap
The “Risk of Ruin” (RoR) changes drastically depending on the game type, even if the RTP is the same. See how volatility impacts your survival.
Example 1: The Safe Grinder (Low Volatility)
You have $200 and want to win $50. You play a Low Volatility slot at $1.00/spin.
- The Simulation: Because the game pays out frequently, your bankroll graph is relatively smooth.
- Risk of Ruin: Low (~25%). You have a very strong chance (75%) of hitting your modest profit goal before going broke.
Example 2: The Bonus Hunter (High Volatility)
You have the same $200 and want the same $50 profit. But you play a High Volatility game (like a Megaways title) at $1.00/spin.
- The Simulation: High volatility games have “long tails” of dead spins. You might spin 100 times without a significant win.
- Risk of Ruin: High (~65%). Even though the target is small, the aggressive variance of the machine means you are likely to drain the $200 before triggering the one big bonus feature needed to put you in profit.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why does High Volatility increase Risk of Ruin?
High volatility means payouts are concentrated in rare, large events (like a 1000x bonus). To pay for those big wins, the machine must have long periods of losing spins. During those losing streaks, your bankroll is depleting. If your bankroll isn’t large enough to survive until the big win hits, you experience “Ruin.”
How can I lower my Risk of Ruin without adding money?
The most effective mathematical way to lower risk is to decrease your bet size. By betting $0.50 instead of $1.00, you effectively double your number of spins, giving you twice as many opportunities to trigger a bonus feature or hit a winning streak before your money runs out.
Does RTP affect Risk of Ruin?
Yes, but less than you think in the short term. RTP (Return to Player) controls the “slope” of your decline over millions of spins. However, in a short session (e.g., 500 spins), Volatility is the dominant factor. A 99% RTP game with extreme volatility is riskier for a small bankroll than a 95% RTP game with low volatility.