Video Poker is arguably the best game in the casino. With optimal strategy, games like “9/6 Jacks or Better” offer a Return to Player (RTP) of over 99.5%. However, there is a catch: Variance.
A huge portion of that RTP is locked behind the elusive Royal Flush (which hits roughly once every 40,000 hands). If your bankroll runs out before you hit the Royal, your theoretical return doesn’t matter. Our Video Poker Risk of Ruin Calculator accounts for the specific volatility of different game variants (like the wild swings of Double Double Bonus vs. the stability of Jacks or Better) to tell you if your bankroll is sufficient to survive the grind.
Video Poker Analyzer
Low Volatility
Med Volatility
High Volatility
$5.00 / Hand
How to Use the Calculator
Unlike slots, Video Poker math is transparent. We know exactly how volatile each game is. Here is how to use this tool to protect your bankroll:
- Select the Game Variant:
- Jacks or Better (JoB): The gold standard for low volatility. Choose this if you want your money to last.
- Deuces Wild: Medium volatility. The “Deuces” keep you alive, but the payouts are top-heavy.
- Double Double Bonus (DDB): High volatility. This game pays huge premiums for 4 Aces with a Kicker, but pays only 1:1 on Two Pair. This creates massive swings in your balance.
- Enter Your Bankroll: The total cash you are willing to commit to this session.
- Select Denomination: Choose your stake (Quarter, Dollar, etc.).
Note: The calculator assumes you are playing Max Bet (5 Coins). Playing fewer than 5 coins drastically cuts the Royal Flush payout and is a mathematical mistake.
- Set Target Win: Your “Walk Away” profit goal.
Real-World Examples: The “Variance” Trap
Many players take a bankroll that works for Jacks or Better and lose it quickly on Double Double Bonus. Here is why the game choice matters.
Example 1: The “Jacks or Better” Grinder
You have $500. You play $1 JoB ($5/hand). You want to win $500.
- The Math: Jacks or Better has a variance of roughly 19.5. It pays 2-for-1 on Two Pair, which happens frequently and stabilizes your bankroll.
- Risk of Ruin: Moderate. You have a fair chance of grinding your way up to the target because the game keeps you in action longer.
Example 2: The “Double Double Bonus” Swing
You use the same $500 to play $1 DDB ($5/hand). Target: $500.
- The Math: DDB has a variance of roughly 42.0 (more than double JoB!). It only pays 1-for-1 on Two Pair. You will bleed chips much faster while waiting for a 4-of-a-kind.
- Risk of Ruin: Very High. With only 100 bets ($500 / $5), the high variance of DDB makes it statistically likely you will bust before hitting a premium hand. To play DDB safely, you generally need a bankroll 2x to 3x larger than for Jacks or Better.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why does the calculator assume 5 coins (Max Bet)?
In Video Poker, the Royal Flush pays 250-to-1 if you bet 1-4 coins, but jumps to 800-to-1 if you bet 5 coins. This bonus is where most of your long-term profit comes from. Playing less than 5 coins increases the House Edge significantly, making it a bad bet.
What is “Variance” in Video Poker?
Variance measures how “swingy” a game is. A low variance game (like Jacks or Better) gives you many small wins to keep you playing. A high variance game (like Double Double Bonus) drains your money fast but offers huge payouts for specific hands (like 4 Aces). High variance requires a larger bankroll.
How much bankroll do I need for $1 Video Poker?
A common rule of thumb for a Risk of Ruin under 5% is to have 3 to 4 Royal Flushes worth of bankroll. For $1 VP ($5 bet), a Royal is $4,000. Therefore, a professional bankroll would be $12,000+. For a casual session trying to double up, you usually need at least 100 bets ($500).