You are playing a Video Poker machine with a 99.54% Return to Player (RTP). Mathematically, you should practically be breaking even. Yet, after two hours, you have lost $200. Why?
The answer is Variance. In Video Poker, the RTP tells you the destination, but Variance tells you how bumpy the ride will be. A game like Jacks or Better offers a smooth ride, while Double Double Bonus is a rollercoaster. Our Video Poker Variance Calculator uses the specific mathematical properties of each game’s paytable to determine your Standard Deviation and calculate the exact bankroll you need to survive the swings.
Video Poker Variance
How to Use the Calculator
This tool helps you plan your gambling session to avoid going bust before hitting a Royal Flush. Here is how to configure it:
- Select Game / Paytable:
- Low Variance: Choose Jacks or Better or Bonus Poker if you want your money to last.
- High Variance: Choose Double Double Bonus if you are chasing big payouts (but be prepared for faster losses).
- Set Denomination: Are you playing Quarters ($0.25) or Dollars ($1.00)? The calculator assumes you are betting “Max Coins” (5 credits), which is the standard strategy for optimal returns.
- Input Hands to Play:
- Speed Reference: An average player hits 500 hands per hour. A fast player hits 800+.
- Analyze the Safe Bankroll: Look at the green number. This is the cash you need to bring to ensure you have a less than 1% chance of going bust (Risk of Ruin).
Real-World Examples: The Cost of Volatility
Why does game selection matter so much? Let’s compare two popular games played at the $0.25 denomination (Total bet: $1.25).
Example 1: The Smooth Ride (Jacks or Better)
You plan to play 1,000 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better.
- Variance: ~19.5 (Low).
- The Result: The calculator shows a Standard Deviation of roughly $25 per 100 hands. Your bankroll gently fluctuates up and down. A $200 buy-in is likely safe for the whole session.
Example 2: The Rollercoaster (Double Double Bonus)
You play the same 1,000 hands on 9/6 Double Double Bonus.
- Variance: ~42.0 (High).
- The Result: The variance is more than double! Because the game relies on hitting rare 4-of-a-kind hands with kickers, you endure long periods of losing. The calculator recommends a much larger bankroll (often 2x-3x higher) to avoid going bust before you hit a premium hand.
Example 3: Deuces Wild
Deuces Wild is unique. While it has high variance (~25.8), the RTP can sometimes exceed 100%. The calculator shows that while you have a positive expectation (profit), the “swings” are still significant enough that you can lose money in the short term.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Which Video Poker game has the lowest variance?
Jacks or Better generally has the lowest variance (around 19.5). This is because the payout is concentrated in the frequent hands like Two Pair and Three of a Kind, keeping your bankroll steady. It is the best game for beginners or players with smaller bankrolls.
What is “Standard Deviation” in Video Poker?
Standard Deviation (SD) measures how far your results will likely deviate from the average. If you are expected to lose $10, but the SD is $100, your result could easily range from +$90 to -$110. High SD games require a larger bankroll to absorb these swings.
Does playing “Max Coins” increase variance?
In terms of dollar amount, yes, because you are betting more money per hand. However, you must always play Max Coins (5 credits) in Video Poker. This is because the Royal Flush payout jumps from 250-for-1 to 800-for-1 only when betting max coins, which significantly boosts your RTP.